By Adam Hamilton
Trainer Jason Grimson is thrilled with the way Swayzee has handled his hectic schedule ahead of today’s $1m IRT New Zealand Trotting Cup at Addington Raceway (5.46pm).
The defending Cup champion arrived at the Butt family’s Woodend Beach stables at 9pm Sunday night, after flights from Sydney to Auckland and then a connector down to Christchurch.
“Looking at him, he seems great,” Grimson said yesterday. “It doesn’t look like he’s lost much weight at all.
“I had him really well before we left and it’s just about having him bright now for race. We’ve taken him down to the beach.
Asked about the enormity of the challenge, giving Swayzee raced and won at Young in New South Wales on Friday night and then had his two flights to get to Christchurch, Grimson still seemed bullish.
“He’s the right sort of horse to try something like this with, not much bothers him and he’s an experienced traveller,” he said.
“You’ve got to say looking at him, it doesn’t seem to have bothered him.”
Grimson believes Swayzee is a better horse than when he won the NZ Cup last year.
“He’s more experienced in the big races and I think that Victoria Cup win last month was as good as he’s ever gone,” he said.
“I’d say he’s a better horse now. It’s hard to say I’m as confident as I was going into this race last year, just because he’s arrived so close to the race.”
Grimson also likes Swayzee’s back row draw.
“It’s pretty much ideal. It may not have been if Leap To Fame was here, but I like it,” he said.
On tactics, Grimson said Swayzee wouldn’t necessarily be driven to dominate the race like he so often is.
“I’ll leave that to Cam (Hart, driver), but he’s more versatile than people realise. He can sprint really quickly, especially in these staying races, if we sit him up,” he said.
Can Merlin or Don’t Stop Dreaming beat the champ?
By Michael Guerin
If the locals want to win back trans-Tasman bragging rights in today’s Cup they are going to need to rise to a new level.
Since 2000 there have been six double winners of the Cup, Terror To Love going on to win three. He is joined by Just An Excuse, Flashing Red, Monkey King, Lazarus and Copy That as the other multiple winners, a group Australian pacer Swayzee tries to join today.
The reason great horses are able to win two Cups is simple: there is nowhere to hide.
Since 2008 there have, quite rightly, been no handicaps in the NZ Cup, meaning like the Olympics the best can return again and again.
And so it will be today.
The searing 3200m around Addington gets most horses out of their comfort zone with a lap to go, out of contention soon after.
Plenty will keep going, standardbreds rarely shirk a task, but few will have the lung capacity or ability to sprint when history demands a price only the special horses can pay.
That is what New Zealand’s best pacers need today, a horse who has both the physical gifts and mental toughness to either outstay or outsprint Swayzee, and to a lesser degree Better Eclipse and Aroda.
Swayzee is a sledgehammer of a horse and if the rival New Zealand drivers let him bully them like last season by rolling to the front in the middle stages they will most likely get what they deserve.
But there are two local warriors who have both the speed and stamina to beat him if they want it bad enough.
And if they can they will reach a new career high today.
One is Merlin.
He used to be fast and flashy but now he is also a brute. Brute helps in the Cup.
His Hall of Fame trainer Barry Purdon says Merlin is ready, in that zone where the good stallions go looking for walls to run through.
“He is in a great space and all we want now is no back luck. We couldn’t have him any better,” says Purdon.
Purdon and training partner Scott Phelan will leave Merlin’s tactics and importantly that decision of whether to hand any potential lead away to Swayzee to driver Zachary Butcher.
Merlin might be one of only two horses in this Cup who could win either leading or trailing.
The other is Don’t Stop Dreaming, our other great hoppled hope, trained by Purdon’s brother Mark and Mark’s son Nathan.
Don’t Stop Dreaming isn’t as handsome and maybe not as fast as Merlin. He was last year but Merlin has developed more and won more.
But Don’t Stop Dreaming has always had that x-factor of a horse who can win a New Zealand Cup. That mix of speed and sheer will wrapped in Purdon polish.
Don’t Stop Dreaming has the manners to use his handy draw and has looked an horse on the improve in both runs this campaign. There is a sense of timing about him.
These days Mark Purdon lives in Matamata, the eight-time Cup winning trainer nowhere as hands on as he used to be.
But he was on Saturday, when he drove Don’t Stop Dreaming in his final pre-Cup workout.
After he uttered five words to Don’t Stop Dreaming’s driver today Blair Orange.
“That’s good enough for me,” he told Orange.
“And he said it with that cheeky smile Mark does when he is feeling good about a horse,” says Orange, the smile now contagious.
This year Swayzee and his Aussie mates will need to fight off two very good local horses who have the training legends to help them become great.
Bad draw but Bet N Win still winning chance in Dominion Trot
By Michael Guerin
The way Bob Butt looks at it Bet N Win has lost a weapon but been gifted an opportunity in today’s $400,000 Renwick Farms Dominion at Addington today.
Well, that is the optimistic version anyway.
Butt drives the four-year-old who has very quickly developed into possibly the best trotter in New Zealand after retirements, injuries and issues have taken their toll on a once golden crop.
Bet N Win is both fluent and fast but has drawn the second line in today’s Group 1 Trot, which is half his problem, the other half being Australian champion trotter Just Believe drawing barrier 2.
The always laughing, enthusiastic Butt is going glass half full on this one.
“Yes, the second line takes away the advantage of his manners because had he drawn the front line he could have led and maybe even parked out Just Believe,” says Butt.
“So now to beat him we are probably going to have to come from behind him, which will be very hard and maybe impossible.
“But looking on the bright side that also means the pressure is off. If we don’t beat him people will understand why. But if we do he will become a superstar.
“And regardless of the result because we are probably going to have to move mid-race how he goes will tell us where we stand and what races David and Stacey [trainers] should aim him for in the next six months.”
Just Believe is so brilliant and brave it is hard to bet against him and he will act as the multi anchor for many today, with Bet N Win and defending Dominion champ Oscar Bonavena the only realistic Kiwi winning chances should the Victorian not bring his A-game.
Butt is even more realistic about his drive Dalton Shard in the NZ Cup, saying he will be looking for short cuts, but he could be the driver to follow on today’s undercard.
He thinks Forgiveness (R1, No.12) can win if she behaves while Dynasty (R2, No.8) is spot on and will be put into the race early.
“Gold Bullion is favourite in Race 3 and he can win for sure but I am just a little worried about it being a 2000m stand as he can be a stride slow at the start. But he is dropping a long way in class.”
Butt trains both Reklaw’s Dream and Classic Elegance in the $200,000 Nevele R Fillies Final and rates the latter at least a place chance for visiting Australian reinsman Brad Hewitt, whose wife owns part of the filly so he has made the trip to drive her.
The Lazarus Effect (R6, No.16) won his only start and is a horse Butt loves and says the second line draw in a big field is his only real concern.
“I’ve also got Xlendi, Ready Set Jet in and I’m driving Neverseentherain and they can all get some of it.”
Michael Guerin’s betting strategy for Cup Day
1: Just Believe (R7, No.2) is a champion Australian trotter and super stayer. So he is your multi anchor.
2: Duchess Megxit (R5, No.9) is very fast and high class. Tricky barrier but should be able to work to the lead.
3: Home track advantage: Marketplace (R9, No.8) meets an untapped northerner in Captain Sampson (1) but the home track thing is real, especially for young horses.
4: Traffic concerns: The Lazarus Effect (R6, No.16): Looks very sharp and good trial last week. Biggest issue could be the big field and his second line draw.
5: Stable split bet: Tu Tangata (R1, No.5) and Forgiveness (No.12) are both trained by the master Paul Nairn and are paying enough you can back them both. If Forgiveness brings her manners she can win at $8.
