The Gong tips, odds & betting strategy | Saturday, November 20

The Gong will be run and won at Kembla Grange this Saturday, with a capacity field of 16 set to face the starter. Count De Rupee is the $3.70 favourite for the $1 million feature after his runner-up performance in the Golden Eagle, while Atishu ($7), I Am Superman ($7.50) and Aramayo ($8) round out those in single figures. Blue Soldier is likely to lead from barrier three, while last year’s winner, Archedemus, may try to repeat his victory 12 months ago by racing on the speed from barrier 19. I Am Superman, Quackerjack, Dawn Passage and Soldier of Love will all hold prominent spots in the run, with Count De Rupee and Aramayo just in behind.

We were with Aramayo in the Epsom Handicap two starts ago when he was beaten in a photo finish to Private Eye. He then went to Flemington on October 30 and was a bit plain late in the Cantala Stakes. The Chris Waller-trained gelding now goes from a Group 1 Handicap back to Quality conditions, so he rises 4kg to 57.5kg, but the big class drop should assist his chances. Barrier 14 is a touch tricky, but James McDonald will do the riding and look to slot in behind the speed, giving his mount every chance. The son of Poet’s Voice was super in the Epsom and that form has already been franked with the likes of Icebath, Mo’unga and Cascadian all coming through it to go on and place at Group 1 level in Melbourne. The $8.50 seems generous if he can peak again.

Waller had a Spring Carnival to remember with a win in the Melbourne Cup and The Everest, and he has a strong hand here with Aramayo and Nudge. The latter is a mare we have always had plenty of time for and we were rewarded for our loyalty over the Brisbane Winter Carnival, where she won back-to-back races and then finished second behind Tofane in the Tatt’s Tiara. Her runs this campaign have been a touch below par, but she now gets out to 1600m fourth-up and goes to a track where she has run well in all three of her starts. This daughter of Fastnet Rock will have to jump out of barrier six, which is ideal, as Jason Collett can settle her a touch closer in the run than where she has in the first few runs this preparation. Nudge is a quality mare, and $21 seems over the odds.

Count De Rupee would have nearly been our top pick in the race if he drew a decent barrier, but gate 17 is pretty awkward. The Robert & Luke Price-trained four-year-old looked home and hosed in the Golden Eagle three weeks ago before being grabbed late by I’m Thunderstruck over 1500m, so his first run at a mile is a genuine query. In saying that, the gelded son of Real Impact is trained on course and has had three of his four starts at Kembla Grange, so he certainly has the home-ground advantage. Brock Ryan knows the horse very well having ridden him four times for a win and three placings, so his guidance will only be an advantage. The 57.5kg at 1600m for the first time from the wide barrier is a bit concerning, but his love for Kembla and his consistent racing record makes him hard to completely dismiss.

Best bets for The Gong 2021