The Follow Files: Top horses to back from January 22 races

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The Follow Files

Welcome to The Follow Files, where our racing analysts look to find you a future winner out of Saturday’s racing from the three major tracks. In this week’s edition we look back at January 22’s racing at Royal Randwick, Moonee Valley and Doomben, and we have found six horses that we think are worth following this preparation.

Royal Randwick | Track: Soft 5 | Rail: +8m

Race 1: 3YO Benchmark 72 (1100m) | Time: 1:03.53

  • Horse to follow: SPELLCATCHER (3rd)

The opening race of the day at Randwick featured a bit of carnage in the straight, which saw Moridan wobble out under pressure and all but wipe SPELLCATCHER out of the race. The latter runner had won his past two starts at Newcastle and Scone, and he arguably should have won this race on Saturday over 1100m. After jumping well, the son of Extreme Choice was forced to go back to the rail of the field due to the wide barrier, but a solid tempo set out in front looked to aid his chances perfectly in the straight. Spellcatcher made a wide, looping run and looked set to go past the leader and race favourite Silent Impact, but the bump that he copped at the 200m cost him.

When to bet: We are confident that Spellcatcher can win wherever he goes next, especially if he finds another similar race to this over 1200m.

Race 8: Listed Carrington Stakes (1400m) | Time: 1:22.50

  • Horse to follow: NO COMPROMISE (3rd)

In the feature race of the day, a resuming stayer really caught our eye along the running rails. The Chris Waller-trained NO COMPROMISE hadn’t been seen since running sixth as a well-supported commodity in the Group 1 Metropolitan Handicap, so he is up there with our better stayers. The five-year-old has never won first or second up, nor has he won at a trip below 2000m, so to see him finish off that strongly over 1400m and get as close as he did suggested that he’s in for a big preparation. He may still be a run or two away from a win, but keep a close eye on his as he gets out over 2000m and more.

When to bet: Fourth or fifth up over a staying trip. Potential targets include the Tancred Stakes (2400m) and Sydney Cup (3200m), where he is a $51 and $26 chance respectively. Happy to have something on him in each of those races.

Moonee Valley | Track: Good 4, upgraded to Firm 2 | Rail: True

Race 2: 2YO Handicap (1200m) | Time: 1:10.66

  • Horse to follow: COUNTTHEHEADLIGHTS (1st)

A field of eight two-year-olds went around in the second race at The Valley, including the impressive COUNTTHEHEADLIGHTS on debut following three good trials. After jumping from the centre of the line, the son of I Am Invincible showed good tactical speed to go forward and park behind the odds-on favourite, Eros, before doing his best work late. The Maher & Eustace runner came off the bridle on the turn and looked as though he would only manage a minor placing, but he really kicked off the bend and was strong late, going past the leader and race favourite to win by 1.25 lengths. We aren’t too sure that he really handled the tight track, and he will only improve with experience.

When to bet: He can go on with the job now and win next time he is at the track too, which will likely be in the Blue Diamond Colts & Geldings Prelude in two weeks.

Doomben | Track: Soft 7 | Rail: True

Race 1: 2YO Handicap (1050m) | Time: 1:03.25

  • Horse to follow: BESSMATI (2nd)

A number of first starters went around in the first race at Doomben on Saturday, with the first three horses past the post all on debut. Although the winner, Pomade, was pretty impressive and very green up the straight, Annabel Neasham’s filly BESSMATI was extremely eye-catching. The daughter of I Am Invincible jumped well from the wide gate but had to go back to the rear, which ultimately bought her undone. At the top of the straight she was squeezed when looking for clear galloping room, and by the time she got clear at the 300m she had four lengths still to make up. That proved too big a task in the end as she went down by a neck.

When to bet: She has a win in her very soon, and we expect to see her saluting in a 2YO Handicap or a 2YO Maiden over 1050m-1200m at her next start.

Race 3: Benchmark 90 (1600m) | Time: 1:37.03

  • Horse to follow: SEAT OF POWER (5th)

In what was one of the more open races of the day, SEAT OF POWER was pleasing in behind the leaders. The seven-year-old is only lightly raced and tends to do his best work over a little bit further, so it was pleasing to see him find the line in restricted room on Saturday. The son of Sea The Stars settled down third-last on the fence and didn’t have much room in the straight, before stretching out in the final 50m of the race and then going through his gears past the post. This race was 1.2 seconds quicker than the Class 3 on the same day over 1600m, so the time was good, while this gelding will get better over further.

When to bet: If not next start, Seat Of Power can win in the start after over 2000m when fourth-up. He looks to have come back well and can win a race of this nature.

Race 6: 3YO Fillies Handicap (1200m) | Time: 1:11.29

  • Horse to follow: PRYCE (4th)

Toowoomba trainers Corey & Kylie Geran sent their three-year-old filly PRYCE to a pretty competitive 3YO Fillies Handicap on Saturday where she really let down late. The daughter of Sebring won stylishly on debut at her home track before being thrown into the deep end here behind the likes of Self Indulgent and Frosty Mango. Pryce got a long way back off a slow tempo, but the way that she darted back to the inside and made up plenty of ground suggested to us that she can win more races.

When to bet: Pryce can get up in an easier race than this soon, whether it be back at Toowoomba, or in a midweek Class 1 race at Doomben or Ipswich.

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