The Follow Files: Thousand Guineas contender emerges at Caulfield

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HorseBetting blackbook tips

It was all happening on Saturday. The rail was the place to be at Rosehill, so there were plenty of horses to forgive there, while it was a bit tricky to make ground at Caulfield. We have found you a few horses to pop in your blackbook ahead of the spring, with plenty of nice target races fast approaching.

Rosehill Gardens | Track: Soft 6 (Soft 5 after R6) | Rail: +7m Entire

Race 2: 3YO Benchmark 72 (1300m) | Time: 1:18.59

  • Horse to follow: BACKROWER (2nd)

There was no hiding that we were pretty keen on BACKROWER on Saturday, making him our best bet of the day at Rosehill. For the punters that followed us in, you are probably still trying to work out how he didn’t win. With a perfect run behind the leader, Tommy Berry opted to push out into the clear and chase, while the winner of the race took our run up the fence and didn’t go around a horse. Had this race been later in the day, there is no doubt Berry would have stayed on the fence and waited for the run to come. In saying that, there was plenty of merit in the horse’s performance, so he will be winning races this preparation.

When to bet: There is bound to be a similar race around for the Freedman-trained three-year-old, with the Golden Rose and Caulfield Guineas likely to be the targets over the coming weeks and months. Don’t drop off him.

Race 5: Fillies & Mares Benchmark 78 (1400m) | Time: 1:24.91

  • Horse to follow: HOPE IN YOUR HEART (8th)

This was the race that sent punters into cardiac arrest. Odds-on favourite Frumos never saw daylight as Hugh Bowman tried to save ground on the fence, and while that was happening, Riduna was off and gone. While everyone was talking about Frumos, we thought the Kerry Parker-trained HOPE IN YOUR HEART was just as stiff. The four-year-old mare was sent out as an $18 chance with online bookmakers, and although she only beat one horse home, she went through the line hard-held after getting no luck in the run.

When to bet: She can probably have another run over 1400m and then go to the mile third-up in similar grade to this and run a big race at a big price. Keep an eye on her this preparation.
 

Caulfield | Track: Good 4 | Rail: +9m Entire

Race 1: Open Handicap (1600m) | Time: 1:36.79

  • Horse to follow: VOW AND DECLARE (5th)

You could say we are mad going back to the well with a horse like VOW AND DECLARE. The 2019 Melbourne Cup winner has placed just once in 11 starts since his famous victory, while he hasn’t started shorter than $26 in any of his past eight races. The Danny O’Brien-trained gelding only had one run last spring before injuring himself, so Saturday’s task over the mile at Caulfield was his first run in close to 12 months. After getting well back in the seven-horse field, we thought he worked home really strongly, suggesting he has come through his setback well and is on track for another Melbourne Cup tilt.

When to bet: By no means are we saying Vow And Declare can add another Melbourne Cup to his CV, but we do think he can be competitive this spring if placed appropriately. Some lesser feature races over 2000m where he can sneak in with a decent weight could be his go, and at the price we are likely to get about him, he will be worth an each-way ticket.
 

Race 6: Group 3 Quezette Stakes (1100m) | Time: 1:02.44

  • Horse to follow: TYPHOON TITMUS (8th)

Here’s one we want to have a little futures play on. Robbie Griffiths & Mathew de Kock saddled up two fillies in Saturday’s Group 3 Quezette Stakes, and while $101 shot Berry Bubbly went past TYPHOON TITMUS in the concluding stages, we want to be with the latter going forward. The filly by Headwater got a fair way back in the run at just her second start after a win on the Pakenham synthetic, but we really liked what she did. Firstly, she had very little luck, having to check off heels a couple of times in the straight; while she wouldn’t have won the race, she had every right to finish closer, so eighth place is better than it looks. Secondly, it was hard to make ground at Caulfield on Saturday, so her position in the run was never going to suit. Finally, the race rated through the roof; they went about 10 lengths better than standard for that class and ran a quicker overall time then Giga Kick and Alpha One – two of the favourites for the Coolmore Stud Stakes.

When to bet: She looks to be a genuine Thousand Guineas hope, so we would love to see the stable target a race like the Edward Manifold Stakes in a few weeks and then go into the Group 1 event on October 12. She is currently $51 for the Guineas, and we think that that is worth a shout.
 

THOUSAND GUINEAS (1600m) | CAULFIELD | WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2022

silksTyphoon Titmus

3yo Filly | Headwater x Little Indian | T: Robbie Griffiths & Mathew de Kock

$51 with Bet365

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