Last Saturday was headlined by the Ipswich Cup meeting as the Queensland Racing Carnival moved away from Brisbane; meanwhile, Flemington and Belmont were the main support cards after Randwick was abandoned due to wet weather. In this week’s edition of The Follow Files, we have found three horses that appear ready to win at their next start after strong performances early in the preparation.
Flemington
Rail position: +11m entire circuit
Race 1: 2YO Handicap (1420m) | Time: 1:24.44
- Horse to follow: Henlein (3rd)
Following his impressive maiden victory on debut at Bendigo, Henlein took on metropolitan grade in his second start, and the Anthony & Sam Freedman-trained colt was far from disgraced. The son of Dundeel ran home nicely from the rear of the field to finish third behind Sneaky Sunrise and Pisces over 1420m. This two-year-old colt recorded the third-fastest last 600m section (33.38s), fastest last 400m section (22.16s), and second-fastest last 200m section (11.47s) of the entire meeting, indicating that he will appreciate another rise in trip third-up.
When to bet: The Freedman’s will more than likely keep Henlien in two-year-old grade and rise in trip to 1500 or 1600m, which should suit him nearing peak fitness third-up. If they can find him a suitable race on a big track like Flemington, he will be a very good bet.
Race 9: 3YO Handicap (1100m) | Time: 1:03.61
- Horse to follow: Prinzerro (2nd)
Prinzerro has recorded back-to-back placings over 1100m down the Flemington straight to begin his second racing preparation, where the Phillip Stokes-trained gelding has finished behind two smart ones in Right To Party and The Black Cloud. Connections thought enough of this son of Pierro to run him in the Group 3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude, and even though he finished last, this guy has shown good ability throughout his career to finish in the top three six times from his eight starts.
When to bet: Stokes and his team will be looking for another race against his own age group, but over 1200m now that he is third-up and nearing peak fitness. With a similar performance, Prinzerro can break through for a win at the end of the season.
Belmont
Rail position: True entire circuit
Race 9: RTG66+ Handicap (1300m) | Time: 1:19.61
- Horse to follow: Deamber (2nd)
Deamber returned from a five-month spell last Saturday, and the Stephanie Bakranich-trained mare ran home strongly from the back of the field to finish second behind Fluro Neuro over 1300m at Belmont. The winner was second-up for this preparation, and he proved too strong in the concluding stages for this daughter of Vert De Grece, who looked as though she needed the run first-up. After such a strong performance fresh, it is expected that she will be ready to win second-up over the same distance or slightly further.
When to bet: Bakranich will seek to find a similar race for Deamber second-up, and if she does find a suitable race on a Good track, this mare will get every chance to win again.
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