Rosehill racing tips, value bets & quaddie | March 11, 2023

RACE 1: MIDWAY BM72 HANDICAP (1600M)

We kick off the program with a tough BM72 race to dissect for the five-year-olds and up. Shotmaker gets the nod for us though as he looks set to return from a 140-day spell. Three of his last four starts have seen him race on an unsuitable wet track which seems to have hampered this promising gelding out of Shooting To Win. The last time Shotmaker saw this course and distance he was 2.2 lengths of The Poacher, who was first-up behind Parisal in a high rating race last time he stepped out. So going back through his best form looks strong enough for this quality of race. We were impressed with his barrier trial at Newcastle on February 16 and has a good enough first-up profile to suggest this Nathan Doyle-trained six-year-old can snag his fifth career win on return. Barrier six should see senior jockey Kerrin McEvoy find a nice cart into the race somewhere mid-field, before peeling to the middle of the track doing his best work late.

• 3
  

  SHOTMAKER

• 12
  

  BORDER CONTROL

• 14
  

  TWICE AS SPECIAL

• 6
  

  LANCASTER BOMBER

RACE 2: GROUP 3 PAGO PAGO STAKES (1200M)

The first of the two-year-old features is the Pago Pago Stakes for the boys and we’re with Shinzo. A few of these gallopers come through the Skyline Stakes on February 25 and he was looking to hit the line best outside of the eventual winner, Corniche. There’s no doubt Shinzo got every conceivable chance to win on that occasion; however, we feel it was more a lack of racing fitness that was the undoing for this son of Snitzel. James McDonald elects to stick with the Chris Waller-trained colt and despite drawing a tricky barrier, we think this has been a target race for some time. Zulfiqar is drawn to our inside and with him being one of the likely pacemakers, it makes sense that McDonald would look to tag his back coming across to slot into a prominent position. So long as he finds cover, he’ll be storming home to look the winner at some stage and book his ticket to the Golden Slipper next Saturday.

• 4
  

  SHINZO

• 7
  

  INTRODUCING

• 2
  

  MAHARBA

• 1
  

  ZULFIQAR

RACE 3: BM88 HANDICAP (1350M)

We’ll be looking for the James McDonald and Chris Waller combination to go back-to-back as Finepoint will be looking to resume a winner in this BM 88 contest. She’s be a consistent mare for the yard with a record reading 10:4-1-3 and finds a similar race to her first-up win last preparation. That was on September 24 when taking down Sibaaq by just less than a length but you can tie that form into the Group 2 Ajax Stakes later in the day. That’s without referencing her Group 3 placing behind Group 1 Coolmore Classic contender Hope In Your Heart in the Angst Stakes. She’s trialled nicely heading into this manageable first-up assignment and with a lovely draw to boot, Finepoint is one of the better bets on the program at Rosehill this weekend.

• 4
  

  FINEPOINT

• 2
  

  TAMERLANE

• 5
  

  DYNAMIC IMPACT

• 8
  

  EL ROCKO

RACE 4: GROUP 3 MAGIC NIGHT STAKES (1200M)

This will be the last time we see the girls step out for a chance to take their place in the Golden Slipper next Saturday and we’re with Steel City. It’s crazy to think that even in her short racing career she’s yet to win a race, but when looking at the horses that have beaten her, it’s easy to see why. Her debut was a strong effort behind Red Resistance before stepping into the Widden Stakes on January 21 behind Golden Slipper favourite Learning To Fly. If you backed her in the Blue Diamond Stakes on February 25, just put a pen through that. She simply never saw daylight in that race and you can mark it a glorified barrier trial in the form guide. Steel City has been right around the best two-year-old form for the Slipper and horses like her and race rival Blanc De Blanc are both deserving of a spot in the Group 1 feature next weekend. It’s really only come down to the speed map for us, as barrier one for Steel City will be ideal provided jockey Regan Bayliss can find this daughter of Merchant Navy clear air late. It’s a cracking race but we’ve lent in her favour.

• 6
  

  STEEL CITY

• 1
  

  BLANC DE BLANC

• 7
  

  TU QUI SANTUZZA

• 16
  

  TIZ INVINCIBLE

RACE 5: GROUP 3 MAURICE McCARTEN STAKES (1100M)

Cannonball is currently a little under the odds with online bookmakers; however, we feel he will only drift with some quality galloper engaged for the Group 3 Maurice McCarten Stakes. He’s one of many gallopers resuming in this race and has had a stable shift with Peter & Paul Snowden now training this three-year-old colt out of Capitalist. You only need to look at some of the quality types he ran into finishing his campaign in the Group 2 Danehill Stakes as Giga Kick went on to win the Everest and second placegetter Buenos Noches being a strong chance in this Saturday’s Newmarket Handicap at Flemington. Cannonball finished 1.5 lengths off them and his one jump out at Rosehill on February 13 since for the new yard was an eye-catcher suggesting he’s only going to improve this time in. He’s got a light weight on his rating and will need to produce a peak effort to win, but from barrier two and Brett Prebble aboard, he should get every opportunity to produce just that.

• 9
  

  CANNONBALL

• 2
  

  ATHELRIC

• 5
  

  CLEMENCEAU

• 3
  

  COAL CRUSHER

RACE 6: GROUP 2 PHAR LAP STAKES (1500M)

Zougotcha is the clear best bet of the day at Rosehill and based on her effort in the Group 1 Surround Stakes, will take a power of beating in this Group 2 contest for the three-year-olds. She resumed in terrific order in the Surround Stakes behind Sunshine In Paris and was unfortunate to lose, let alone miss the frame, in the blanket finishes over the 1400m. She gave a fitness edge to her rivals and got an even run at best throughout and was still holding nicely to the winning post as a couple just found her tiring late. Now she’s second-up where she found success in the Group 2 Tea Rose last preparation when beating stablemate and race rival Madame Pommery, before going on to win the Group 1 Flight Stakes in a canter. Meanwhile Madame Pommery went on to win the Group 1 Thousand Guineas. Zougotcha draws to find the one-one on Saturday and it really looks like a race where only bad luck or any extremely slowly run race can get her beaten. The $1.85 with online betting sites is short enough, but honestly, it’s probably fair enough.

• 7
  

  ZOUGOTCHA

• 2
  

  BROSNAN

• 8
  

  MADAME POMMERY

• 6
  

  FIREBURN

RACE 7: GROUP 3 SKY HIGH STAKES (2000M)

Magical Lagoon is a massive price in the Sky High Stakes and we’re happy to make her the best each-way value on the card. Her price for a Group 1 winner first-up in Australia is simply too good to ignore. She won the Group 1 Irish Oaks at the Curragh on July 16 and then proceeded to run into the eventual Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner – Alpinista – in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks on August 18. She was well beaten on that occasion and subsequently took a trip to Japan, failing in behind Japanese rising start, Geraldina. You only need to be forgiving that single run to say her form stacks beautifully for a Group 3 race like this on Saturday. Her two jump outs for trainer Chris Waller have shown more than enough for us to say she’s going to be competitive first-up. Her profile does suggest she’s more effective second-up in the preparation; however, if she’s a massive eye-catcher on Saturday, there’s no way you’ll be getting a mammoth price like this moving forward. She might not win, but if she can find a placing, that will provide a nice return for followers.

• 6
  

  MAGICAL LAGOON

• 4
  

  NO COMPROMISE

• 16
  

  PROTAGONIST

• 15
  

  KING FRANKEL

Race 8: GROUP 1 COOLMORE CLASSIC (1500M)

The scratching of Zougotcha has left Annavisto ($5.50) the outright favourite in this year’s edition of the Coolmore Classic. There’s plenty of value on offer outside of her though, with most of the fillies and mares set to conquer Group 1 glory for the first time. Ruthless Dame ($7.50), Hope In Your Heart ($8), Hinged ($8) and Espiona ($9) round out the horses in single figures for the race.

See our full Coolmore Classic betting preview here

RACE 9: GROUP 2 AJAX STAKES (1500M)

Waterford gets one more chance for us and goes on top in a competitive edition of the Ajax Stakes. They’ll need to win if the Group 1 Doncaster Mile is the camps target moving forward. He was undoubtably disappointing last time out behind Think About It in a BM88 on February 11, but we’re more putting it down to the unsuitable position in the run. He looks like a galloper that needs wide running room to stride out and never looked comfortable on the inside of horses. That might not be an ideal position for him and now getting back to a course and distance where Waterford has seen three straight wins, should be the making of a very promising colt. He’s clearly got the most progression and upside in this field, provided newly appointed jockey Brett Prebble can get the best out of this son of Awtaad, he can find his way to bigger races than this.

• 12
  

  WATERFORD

• 1
  

  BANDERSNATCH

• 4
  

  SIBAAQ

• 7
  

  ASCENSION

RACE 10: BM78 HANDICAP (1900M)

They’ve saved one of the toughest races for last at Rosehill with a wide-open market but we’ve landed with the highest rated galloper, Almania, on top. We’re thinking the form behind Glory Daze at Randwick on February 25 should be stacking nicely in BM78 company, despite coming back in trip to the 1900m. His run was good enough to suggest he’s not far away from a win and he may now have found his level. He is a very lightly-raced seven-year-old but has had excuses as to why he hasn’t been finding the winner’s enclosure since arriving in Australia. This is comfortably his easiest task on paper so we’re hopeful his class can pay dividends in the Rosehill finale.

• 1
  

  ALMANIA

• 13
  

  STROKE OF LUCK

• 9
  

  MAJOR BEEL

• 7
  

  WINEGLASS BAY