Randwick race-by-race preview & best bets | March 4, 2023

RACE 1: MIDWAY BM72 HANDICAP (1600M)

We kick off the card with what might be the hardest race on the program to dissect with the market tending to agree with every runner at $5 or more. Navajo Peak gets the verdict for us though with a nice first-up performance behind Randwick Guineas bound Lindermann on February 18 at Rosehill. The winner was too strong had fitness on our runner who was brave enough finishing 2.9 lengths away into fourth. He’s got a great second-up profile and is yet to miss the frame when racing at Randwick with three starts for two wins and another minor placing. In a race with minimal speed, we can see Navajo Peak get the perfect run in behind Carolina Fire who looks the natural leader. Navajo Peak has to lug the tough task of 61kg on his back, but with senior jockey Tim Clark taking the reins on Saturday we think he’s a nice bet to kick off the card, with our other selections likely to fill in the exotics.

• 1
  

  NAVAJO PEAK

• 16
  

  CAROLINA FIRE

• 11
  

  CASUAL CONNECTION

• 4
  

  DECADENT TALE

RACE 2: GROUP 2 TODMAN STAKES (1200M)

The first of the two-year-old features is the Todman Stakes for the boys over the 1200m and we’ve got a small, but classy field of five runners set to line up. Red Resistance is looking for three in a row on Saturday and looks very hard to beat in the Todman before heading to the Golden Slipper. He won the Canonbury Stakes on January 28 by pinging the lids in a small field and should get a very similar set up this weekend. His barrier trial since on February 16 at Warwick Farm saw him do the exact same thing he’s been doing in his races, kicking clear to win the jump out by six lengths. Brett Prebble jumps aboard this son of Russian Revolution again and should find himself the natural leader in this contest. Cylinder will be making a race of it late, as will Empire Of Japan, Cafe Millennium and Militarize. A win from any of these wouldn’t shock, but it’s too hard to go against Red Resistance.

• 2
  

  RED RESISTANCE

• 1
  

  CYLINDER

• 3
  

  EMPIRE OF JAPAN

• 4
  

  CAFE MILLENNIUM

RACE 3: GROUP 2 REISLING STAKES (1200M)

The Reisling Stakes is for the two-year-old fillies and it’s time for the girls to stamp some authority for Golden Slipper contention. Learning To Flying simply must go on top in this first attempt over 1200m. Her two wins have been outstanding and shown a great versatility from a juvenile. She picked up her rivals from well back in the field in the Inglis Millennium on February 11 and was breathtaking going to the line. The form has been franked very nicely with Lazzago, Blanc De Blanc and Facile running the trifecta in last weekends Sweet Embrace. In another small field of six as is the case with the Todman, we think Learning To Fly will adopt similar tactics to her first-up win in the Widden Stakes pressing forward and kicking clear. Jockey Chad Schofield can take luck out of the equation here and solidify the Golden Slipper favouritism.

• 1
  

  LEARNING TO FLY

• 2
  

  KUNDALANI

• 6
  

  MATHKHOORA

• 4
  

  CIGAR FLICK

RACE 4: LISTED RANDWICK CITY STAKES (2000M)

We’re taking a risk here in the 2000m Randwick City Stakes with Sir Lucan first-up after a 487-day spell, last seen in the 2021 Melbourne Cup. This Camelot gelding is resuming with the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott yard and in a race that seems well within Sir Lucan’s grasp at his best. He’s got Group 1 quality form back in Europe prior to arriving in Australia behind Yabir and Hurricane Lane, who at the time were absolutely airborne. His second barrier trial at Randwick caught the as well and looks to have improved significantly with time away from racing. You’ve got to take on trust the yard have him in good order on return and this may not be grand final day with bigger targets in sight, but at double figure odds, we’re happy to make him our each-way play of the afternoon. Nash Rawiller can be positive from barrier three and could even lead with a lack of genuine speed. It’s never easy to resume a winner on such a long break, but with the price on offer with online bookmakers, we couldn’t resist.

• 4
  

  SIR LUCAN

• 1
  

  SOULCOMBE

• 8
  

  ATHABASCAN

• 3
  

  SACRAMENTO

RACE 5: LISTED FIREBALL STAKES (1100M)

We made Economics our best bet last time before being scratched at the barriers and we’re happy to stay with him on Saturday in the Fireball Stakes. This colt finished his preparation really impressively behind In Secret in the Coolmore Stud Stakes back on October 29 and has trialled the house down coming into this new first-up assignment. He was forced back for a second trial leading into this at Hawkesbury on February 21 and under minor riding was able to salute in a soft jump out over 1000m. It was a proper hit out by James McDonald who gets the tick taking the ride this time and the only negative we can see is barrier 11. We’ll leave it to one of the worlds’ best to get a nice spot on Economics and despite this looking a tricky first-up assignment, we’re sticking with this son of Capitalist who has plenty of upside moving forward.

• 3
  

  ECONOMICS

• 5
  

  TROACH

• 11
  

  WILLINGA BEAST

• 1
  

  CANNONBALL

RACE 6: GROUP 2 CHALLENGE STAKES (1000M)

The Challenge Stakes is one of the traditional lead up races moving towards the Group 1 TJ Smith Stakes and we’re keen to be with the affectionately known “Special Eddy” Eduardo on Saturday afternoon. His first-up profile for a weight-for-age race like this is ideal with 10 starts for five wins and four more minor placings to his name. His 1000m record at Randwick is unblemished as well with three starts and three victories. We’d love some sting out of the ground, as we does tend to be more effective on wetter ground, but with a rating of 117 he’s been beautifully placed by trainer Joseph Pride. The name nine-year-old is bound to disappoint at some stage, but it’s hard to leave him out in a race like this. Nash Rawiller will do what he always does and lead throughout and play ‘catch me if you can’. We don’t think they will though.

• 1
  

  EDUARDO

• 8
  

  GIGA KICK

• 2
  

  PAULELE

• 3
  

  REMARQUE

Race 7: GROUP 1 CANTERBURY STAKES (1300M)

New Zealand raider Imperatriz ($3) heads the market for this year’s edition of the Canterbury Stakes and will find a tough task ahead as Golden Mile ($4.80), Artorius ($7) and Cascadian ($11) all have claims in a quality edition of the race.

See our in-depth Canterbury Stakes betting preview here

Race 8: GROUP 1 RANDWICK GUINEAS (1600M)

The Hobartville Stakes form has been the correct one to find the winner of the Randwick Guineas the last 10 times, but will it continue on Saturday? Aft Cabin ($2.90), Osipenko ($4.80), Zou Tiger ($6) and Matcha Latte ($8.50) all come through that race and own the market.

See our full Randwick Guineas betting preview here

RACE 9: GROUP 3 ASPIRATION QUALITY (1600M)

This is a Group 3 contest for the fillies and mares over the 1600m and Roots should have her rivals covered in the penultimate race of the Randwick program. She was a huge run first-up in behind Electric Girl in the Millie Fox Stakes on February 18 over the 1300m and ran out of time on that occasion. The Chris Waller yard elect to immediately step up to the mile and despite being second-up in the preparation looks the clear one to beat on Saturday. Most of her rivals are staying types early in the prep or mares running out of their respective grade, while Roots has all the big tickets coming out of Group level quality as a four-year-old. James McDonald should get a lovely run from barrier two here and with any luck should be winning this with ease. This daughter of Press Statement is in for a big campaign and needs to be winning this on her way to tough tasks moving into the autumn.

• 2
  

  ROOTS

• 7
  

  BELLATRIX BLACK

• 9
  

  THALASSOPHILE

• 4
  

  CLIFF’S ART

RACE 10: GROUP 3 WENONA GIRL QUALITY (1200M)

We finish the meeting at Randwick with another tough race and we’ve gone with Sky Command in the finale. She found two nice wins last preparation at Listed and Group 3 level, seemingly finding her best over when going out at a quick tempo and running her rivals ragged. She can do something similar here first-up after a 84-day spell and should find the running rail relatively easy with the only other natural speed drawn wider with Jump The Broom likely to come across and sit outside our top pick. If she can pinch a cheap sectional or two before storming clear at the bend, she’ll be giving them something to chase late.

• 2
  

  SKY COMMAND

• 4
  

  BAROSSA ROSA

• 13
  

  JAL LEI

• 11
  

  KATALIN