Queensland Derby preview & betting strategy | May 27, 2023

The 151st running of the Group 1 Queensland Derby is the headline act at Eagle Farm Racecourse this Saturday afternoon. Most of the runners are coming through the Group 3 Rough Habit Plate, with a few coming through the South Australian Derby on the same day. Chris Waller and the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace stable have dominated the staying races across Australia in the past 12 months and they train the top three runners in the market for this three-year-old staying classic.

Queensland Derby 2023 betting odds

After finishing third in the Group 1 Doomben Cup last Saturday, Kovalica has opened as an odds-on favourite at $1.75 with online bookmakers in the 2023 Queensland Derby. Only two more runners are currently marked under double figures, and they are Promises Kept ($7.50) and Special Swey ($9.50). Outside of the top three, Aberfeldie Boy ($14), The Vowels ($15) and Stroke Of Luck ($21) are given outside chances.

Queensland Derby 2023 speed map

The speed map seems quite straightforward with the likes of Sacred Mission, Special Swey and Promises Kept expected to push forward after they led at their previous race starts for positive results. Behind them The Englishman, Fame, Stroke Of Luck and The Vowels will look to settle on-speed; however, it is likely that a three-wide running line will appear with so many runners coming across the field from wide barriers. At the back of the field we expect to see Kovalica, Tapildoodledo and Aberfeldie Boy, who will be making their runs from the 600m mark to swoop down the outside late.

Continue reading for HorseBetting’s top selections and $100 betting strategy for Queensland Derby 2023.

Queensland Derby 2023 preview & form

Kovalica has been the favourite for the Queensland Derby for some time having won four of his first five starts, with his dominant win in the Group 3 Grand Prix Stakes ending his first racing preparation. Since returning to the racetrack on April 8, this son of Ocean Park has finished third in the Listed South Pacific Stakes and Group 1 Doomben Cup against the older horses, while in between those races he took out the Group 2 Queensland Guineas in dominant fashion. A massive market-drifter in the Doomben Cup, he received the run of the race and ran up the inside to finish third behind Huetor and Numerian, who fought out the finish a length ahead of him. Chris Waller chose to run in the Doomben Cup and then back up in the Queensland Derby, and after such a strong performance against the older horses, it may be a masterstroke from the master trainer. With even luck and a clean run in transit, Kovalica should be winning this race.

The stablemate to the favourite looks to be the best of the rest, with Special Swey coming off a strong win in the Group 3 Rough Habit Plate. On his Australian debut, this gelded son of Sweynesse settled behind the speed for the first 1000m before Tyler Schiller made a mid-race move and went to the front — and from there they never looked back, winning by 1.5 lengths. After kicking clear halfway down the home straight, you would expect him to be taking smaller steps in the final 100m, but this guy went over the line as strongly as any other runner, indicating to us that he will have no problem with the extra 400m in the Derby. Special Swey will give the race favourite something to chase, and if he can kick clear and maintain enough of a margin late, he could just steal it.

The runner-up in the South Australian Derby, Promises Kept, appeared to have the Group 1 in his grasp at the 200m at Morphettville, but he was beaten by an outstanding finishing burst from Dunkel. We expect to see this son of Cluster go to the front from barrier one and take the lead; however, there will be a lot more pressure in this race with the likes of Special Swey and Sacred Mission also going forward. This gelding ran into a good one last start, and he could run into a couple more at Eagle Farm this Saturday.

Aberfeldie Boy ran third in the VRC Derby and the South Australian Derby and was running on at the end both times, showing that the distance is no worry for the son of So You Think. This gelding appeared to have every chance in the SA Derby and ran on strongly, but with him only winning one race from seven career starts, he is hard to tip with confidence. If you are having a trifecta or first four, make sure you put Aberfeldie Boy in your numbers.

Queensland Derby 2023 selections & best bets

• 1

  KOVALICA

• 8

  SPECIAL SWEY

• 4

  PROMISES KEPT

• 3

  ABERFELDIE BOY

More horse racing tips