Queensland Derby Day preview & best bets | May 28, 2022

Race 1: Group 2 The Roses (2100m)

Saturday’s program goes straight into a Group 2 event, with the three-year-old fillies set to do battle in The Roses just seven days before the Group 1 Queensland Oaks (2200m). This race was scheduled for last weekend over 2000m, but the change in venue meant the distance also had to be changed, so it will now be run over 2100m. We are still with SMIRK from the Chris Waller yard, in the hope that the extra 100m will be advantageous for her. The daughter of Preferment was a good winner two starts ago, while she wasn’t beaten far by Dynasties and Gypsy Goddess in the Gold Coast Bracelet three weeks ago. James McDonald goes on from barrier four, so she should get a sweet run in behind the speed and hopefully prove too classy.

• 9
  

  SMIRK

• 1
  

  BARB RAIDER

• 3
  

  GIN MARTINI

• 8
  

  CHILKO LAKE

Race 2: Group 3 Premier’s Cup (2400m)

The open-class stayers get their chance early on in the program, with 16 horses set to line up in the Group 3 Premier’s Cup over 2400m. We tipped SOPRANO SUPREME three weeks ago in the Gold Coast Cup in what was her first Australian start, and we loved the run despite the narrow defeat. The New Zealand mare was in the worst part of an unsuitable Heavy 8 track that day, so she should relish getting to a firmer surface at Eagle Farm. The stable made note after the race that they would be coming to this very race, so it is pleasing to see everything go to plan, while Kerrin McEvoy retaining the ride is a positive. From barrier 11, the Mark Walker-trained mare will likely get back, but we expect every horse to get their chance on Saturday, so she should be able to finish off the better.

• 15
  

  SOPRANO SUPREME

• 3
  

  STEEL PRINCE

• 1
  

  SPIRIT RIDGE

• 4
  

  FLASH AAH

Race 3: Group 3 Lord Mayor’s Cup (1800m)

When all is said and done, the Lord Mayor’s Cup has turned out to be a very nice race. Chris Waller holds the key with the top two market fancies, and that’s the way we are siding. HUNGRY HEART hasn’t won since her Australian Oaks victory in April last year, but she has only had a handful of starts in that time on unsuitable tracks and unsuitable distances. On Saturday, she gets 1800m once again after running well in the Hollindale Stakes three weeks ago, while most importantly she gets a dry track. The Frankel mare has had four starts this calendar year, three of which were on heavy going. Now back to a Brisbane Group 3 race at a track she should love, the four-year-old mare should be too classy for this field. William Pike stays in the saddle, and barrier two allows her to get a cushy run in transit. We want to give a special mention to Ballistic Boy, who was terrific in the Scone Cup (1600m) last start in the concluding stages. With Brad Stewart back in the saddle, second-up and back to Eagle Farm, he will be a huge threat.

• 2
  

  HUNGRY HEART

• 5
  

  BALLISTIC BOY

• 1
  

  KOLDING

• 4
  

  ZAYYDANI

Race 4: Group 2 BRC Sires’ Produce Stakes (1400m)

We would not be surprised to see the BRC Sires’ Produce Stakes promoted to Group 1 status in the next few years, but for the time being, it is a $1 million Group 2 event for two-year-olds. This year’s edition has attracted a capacity field – so much so, the J.J. Atkins favourite is going to struggle to get a start in the main lead-up event. See our in-depth BRC Sires’ Produce Stakes betting preview here.

Race 5: Group 1 Doomben Cup (2100m)

This field has hardly changed from what we expected to see run last Saturday at Doomben, apart from the fact that Chris Waller has substituted Kolding out and put Yonkers in his place. The market suggests Zaaki will be incredibly hard to beat in his title defence, but do our racing analysts agree? Read our runner-by-runner preview of the 2022 Doomben Cup.

Race 6: Group 3 Fred Best Classic (1400m)

What a race this will be! With a spot in the Stradbroke Handicap on the line, a full field of 18 has been assembled, including some very nice three-year-olds. FLYING CRAZY won the Daybreak Lover at this track and distance two starts ago, before heading back to New South Wales and winning the Listed Luskin Star Stakes at Scone on May 14 over 1300m. Despite a betting drift in the Luskin Star, he beat the older horses with quite a bit of authority. The Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou-trained son of Flying Artie is likely to get back from the wide alley, but he’s been near last in his past two victories, so that isn’t too much of a concern. He’s the one to beat.

• 5
  

  FLYING CRAZY

• 4
  

  RANCH HAND

• 2
  

  PRINCE OF BOOM

• 16
  

  STARTANTES

Race 7: Group 3 BRC Sprint (1300m)

We aren’t too sure that DESERT LORD gets the credit he deserves, so we are going to side with the David Vandyke-trained galloper at $31 odds. The seven-year-old son of High Chaparral has finished in the top three on 18 occasions from 29 career starts, so the long odds seem absurd. First-up, he was a little plain in the ATC Trophy at the Gold Coast, but the bottomless surface wasn’t to his liking, so now second-up on a drier surface over 1300m should suit him much better. Craig Williams goes in the saddle, while barrier 11 allows the pair to settle down midfield with cover and come with a good run in the concluding stages. The horse flies second-up, he’s a winner at Eagle Farm, and his best form is right up to this.

• 10
  

  DESERT LORD

• 11
  

  TYCOONIST

• 3
  

  EMERALD KINGDOM

• 15
  

  GOSPODIN

Race 8: Group 1 Queensland Derby (2400m)

The feature on Saturday’s program is the Queensland Derby, which is another race with a full field. The Rough Habit Plate (2000m) looks to be the right form reference given that it is the traditional lead-up to the Derby, while a few horses come from Sydney and Melbourne, as well as a number of runners from New Zealand. See our comprehensive 2022 Queensland Derby preview and find out who we’re backing.

Race 9: Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup (1300m)

The third and final Group 1 event on Saturday is the Kingsford Smith Cup, where 16 horses will take their place in the final field. Sierra Sue’s scratching means that Scallopini gets a run in the $700,000 event. While we haven’t gone over every runner in this Group 1, we have highlighted our top selections and betting strategy. See our Kingsford Smith Cup betting preview here.

Race 10: Listed Helen Coughlan Stakes (1200m)

To round out the afternoon, 18 fillies and mares will contest the Helen Coughlan Stakes over 1200m at Listed level. The race is a deadset lottery, with form lines coming from all over the place. We are with the locally trained SALATEEN, who comes back to mares grade following a brave third to Soxagon and Last Chance on the Gold Coast three weeks ago. The Tony Gollan-trained four-year-old is a winner in this grade at Doomben on New Years’ Day, and since then she has been beaten three lengths in the Magic Millions Fillies & Mares (1300m) and then again in the ATC Trophy last start. Drawn in barrier two, Jim Byrne will have her cuddled up for one last shot at them. The $21 on offer with online bookmakers is appealing.

• 10
  

  SALATEEN

• 10
  

  JUAN DIVA

• 3
  

  WRITTEN BEAUTY

• 4
  

  DIRTY THOUGHTS