Northerly Stakes preview & betting strategy | December 3, 2022

The 2022 Northerly Stakes, formerly known as the Kingston Town Classic, will be the last Group 1 of the Perth Summer Carnival, where a full field of 16 will battle it out over 1800m this Saturday. The track is currently rated in the Good range, and with some warm weather expected between Thursday and Saturday, we expect to stay in that range for the entire raceday. The rail will go out to the 6m position for the entire circuit, which should favour on-pace runners for most of the day.

Online bookmakers have been finding it hard to separate Cascadian ($2.90) and Amelia’s Jewel ($3.10) all week long, but after the latter drew barrier one, the former has overtaken the filly as the favourite. The only other runner in single figures is the Neville Parnham-trained Bustler ($8). Next in the market we have Railway Stakes winner Trix Of The Trade ($11) and WATC Derby winner Alaskan God ($13).

There is no natural leader engaged in this year’s edition of the Northerly Stakes, which leads us to believe that Bad Wolf and Searchin’ Roc’s — from barriers two and 14, respectively — will look to take up the lead. Bustler with 52kg on his back will settle on-pace, alongside Startrade and Dom To Shoot. Most of the field will be looking to find cover and settle worse than midfield, so look for the likes of Cascadian, Trix Of The Trade and God Has Chosen trying to find the three-wide running line with cover.

Continue reading for HorseBetting’s top selections and $100 betting strategy for the 2022 Northerly Stakes.

James Cummings and Godolphin bring their star eight-year-old Cascadian to Perth for a crack at another Group 1 after he ran a gallant fifth place in the Group 1 VRC Champions Mile over 1600m at Flemington on November 5. This son of New Approach has won two of his last three starts, with both wins being in Group races at Randwick over 1800m and 2000m, before running at Flemington. This guy is a multiple Group-race winner, while he is unbeaten at 1800m, so it is fair to say that he is proven at the distance and at Group 1 level. This gelding comes into this race with a handicap rating of 117, which is 11 higher than his next rival, but he only has to carry 59kg — just half a kilogram more than the second-highest rated runner in the race. Barrier 12 is a sticky draw, but he will have the services of James McDonald, who has ridden this guy at his last three starts. Cascadian is the class horse in this field and a deserving favourite.

Colin Webster will bring his Railway Stakes winner, Trix Of The Trade, to the Northerly Stakes, and if he brings the same form and gets a similar run in transit on Saturday, the $13 on offer from the betting sites could prove to be well over the odds. This four-year-old gelding has won nine of his 14 careers starts, including wins in two of his last three starts at Ascot this campaign. In the concluding stages of his most recent start, he was running away from the rest of the field on the line, recording a 1.7-length victory over Comfort Me and Startrade. This son of Trade Fair showed versatility in his racing pattern in the Railway Stakes, settling midfield instead of at the back of the field like he has in most of his career starts to date. Barrier 16 is a worry, but if he can get into the three-wide running line with cover, he will have every chance to go back-to-back in the feature Group 1 races.

One of the two three-year-olds coming out of the WA Guineas last start will be the Simon Miller-trained Amelia’s Jewel, who took back her crown as the best three-year-old in Perth with a victory in the Guineas. This daughter of Siyouni will carry the bottom weight of 50kg but she has drawn barrier one, which will give Patrick Carbery some pre-race headaches, as he would like to get her off the rail in the middle stages of the race to build her momentum and run on. This filly has a ton of ability, and she can win if she gets the favours, but we are willing to risk that she doesn’t get off the rail and she gets held up. At $3, she isn’t a bet for us.

Ciaron Maher & David Eustace will bring their five-year-old mare Steinem to Perth for a crack at the 1800m Group 1 after her huge run in defeat in the Group 2 Matriarch Stakes over 2000m at Flemington last start. If the connections choose to push forward again to sit outside the leader and the track is playing favourable to on-pace runners, don’t be surprised to see her in the finish.

2022 Northerly Stakes selections & best bets

• 1

  CASCADIAN

• 10

  TRIX OF THE TRADE

• 16

  AMELIA’S JEWEL

• 12
  

  STEINEM

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