Newcastle Cup Day preview & best bets | Friday, September 17

HorseBetting’s New South Wales form analyst brings you his best bets on Newcastle Gold Cup Day, including his top picks in the three Group 3 events and his quaddie numbers. The track is rated a Heavy 8 and the rail is in the true position for the entire course. The first race of the afternoon is set to jump at 1pm, while the Gold Cup will go at 4:40pm AEST.

Group 3 Tibbie Stakes: Bring The Ransom

Bjorn Baker’s mare Bring The Ransom ran an eye-catching second to More Prophets in a key lead-up race to the Tibbie Stakes – the Mona Lisa Stakes at Wyong – and meets More Prophets 1kg better off at the weights here, which puts the ball in her court to turn the tables. The five-year-old by Sebring won well at Kembla Grange two starts ago with 60kg on her back over 1400m, before running out of time over 1350m in the Mona Lisa last start, so back up to 1400m will be a big plus. Drawn in barrier eight, Chad Lever will settle towards the back of the pack on this fast-finishing mare who is aiming to remain unbeaten at Newcastle. Great News and More Prophets look to be the dangers once again, while we will be keeping a close eye on Bargain, who comes out of a tough run in the Queensland Oaks last start prior to a spell.

Group 3 Newcastle Gold Cup: Harpo Marx

We are still kicking ourselves for jumping off Harpo Marx last start after leading the fan club for months on end, but we are back on board now as he gets back to 2300m and onto a Heavy 8 surface. Bjorn Baker can make it a feature double on Friday, with his six-year-old son of Galileo primed to make it three straight wins this preparation on his way to the Group 1 Metropolitan Handicap. The gelding really knuckled down to the task last time out over 2000m to win by 0.2 lengths at Kembla Grange with 53kg, which sees him rise to 56kg in a tougher race, but the conditions should suit even more now. Barrier four will give Brodie Loy a few options, but he is likely to settle in the second half of the field as per his mount’s natural racing pattern. Newcastle will suit Harpo Marx also.

Group 3 Cameron Handicap: Duais

Year after year we see a field in the Cameron Handicap that is almost identical to the Bill Ritchie Stakes (run on Saturday at Randwick). While this edition doesn’t have too many dual acceptors across the two races, our top pick is one of those in Duais. The four-year-old won the Queensland Oaks in superb fashion and looks well placed first-up to add to the list of winners that have come out of the Brisbane Winter Carnival, including Incentivise, Zaaki, Splintex and Giannis. The Ed Cummings-trained mare had one soft trial behind Wild Ruler in preparation for her first-up task, but she should also carry residual fitness out of the winter. Barrier eight will see Alysha Collett get the daughter of Shamus Award in a lovely spot in the run, giving her every chance to finish off strong. Duais has drawn barrier 12 of 13 in Saturday’s race at Randwick, so we expect connections to scratch there and start here instead.

Best Bet at Newcastle: Yearning

Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes saddle up the reasonably promising Yearning in the second race of the day. The three-year-old filly was disappointing first-up on August 18 over 1250m at Randwick-Kensington as a $2.40 favourite but has since shown something at Group 2 level, beaten less than two lengths by Jamaea and Robodira. The daughter of Snitzel now finds herself back to a Provincial Maiden against her own sex and gets out to 1400m third-up, which should suit her down to the ground. Koby Jennings does the steering from the inside alley, so we are hoping to see Yearning settle closer to the speed with 61kg on her back. If she brings her best, she should win this.

Next Best at Newcastle: Akahata

We are putting our trust into Bjorn Baker this Friday, tipping him twice in the feature races and here with Akahata in the opening race of the day. The son of Pins has had seven starts to date for a win, a second and a third, but it is worth noting that he contested some pretty handy races during his two-year-old season. The now three-year-old colt ran second to Arnaqueur at his third career start, finished third in the Listed Fernhill Stakes behind Converge and Maurice’s Medad, and then ran around in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes prior to going for a spell. The horse resumed with a maiden win at Hawkesbury on September 19 before running fourth to his stablemate Ita, who saluted as a short-priced favourite on Wednesday at Randwick-Kensington. One of the best apprentices in the country does the riding in Dylan Gibbons, which is a big advantage from barrier six. Back to the winner’s stall on Friday for Akahata in the opener.

Newcastle quaddie tips for Gold Cup Day 2021