Mustang Valley will be out to prove her class when attempting a first Group One title on Good track conditions on Saturday at Ellerslie.
The dual Group One-winning mare made a strong impression fresh-up over 1400m, finishing a narrow second in a contest featuring Fashion Shoot (first), Karman Line (fourth) and Maria Farina (fifth), the trio now set to face off in the Gr.1 NCEA New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders’ Stakes (1600m).
“It was a great effort resuming, she just had to give away a fair bit of weight and was a bit vulnerable first-up,” Forsman said.
“I couldn’t have been happier with how she went. She just missed the bob and she’ll improve a lot for it.”
Mustang Valley earned her second elite-level crown over the mile in a rain-affected Arrowfield Stud Plate last September, an unlikely fate for Ellerslie’s StrathAyr track, where the Breeders’ was rescheduled in the absence of Te Aroha.
Forsman is under no illusion about the daughter of Vanbrugh’s affinity with heavy tracks, where all six of her career victories have come, but opted to remain on this side of the Tasman on Saturday with the appeal of weight-for-age conditions.
“When the Breeders’ was moved to Ellerslie, we weren’t quite sure if it would be the right option for her or not. Ellerslie is a relatively firm track, and she operates better on rain-affected ground such as Te Aroha, but it wasn’t to be,” Forsman said.
“We just weighed up whether to run here or head to the Emancipation Stakes (Gr.2, 1500m) at Rosehill, but we thought we’ll keep her here for one more run, being a weight-for-age Group One where we feel she is a strong top-three chance.
“Whatever happens on Saturday, it is ideally setting her up for the last day of the Championships in the Queen Of The Turf (Gr.1, 1600m).”
The Cambridge horseman has engaged the mare’s Arrowfield Stud Plate-winning jockey Joe Doyle and hopes to see her in a midfield position from barrier two.
“I think there’s a bit of speed in the race drawn outside of her, so we’ll be positive as Ellerslie is not a track that you want to be too far back, or leave too much to do,” Forsman said.
“We’ll be looking to hold a spot midfield or just ahead, they’ll run at a steady enough clip, and if she’s in that position she’ll get her chance.”
Victory would also provide Forsman with his first in the race in a solo capacity, having triumphed with Nicoletta (2019), Charmont (2017) and Diademe (2015) whilst in partnership with Murray Baker.
Doyle will also partner stablemate Sporting Chance in the Elsdon Park 2200, the Dundeel five-year-old stepping up in distance after a solid fourth in the South Waikato Cup (2000m).
“He’s come through that run really well, he’s been a tad frustrating in running good races without really looking like winning,” Forsman said.
“The plan will be to bounce him out of the gates and get him up and rolling, if we can be positive and get him in the first three or four, he’ll get his chance.”
Forsman’s Ellerslie contingent will be completed by Blissfull Lady in the SkyCity Horizon 1600, the Shocking mare one of a several scratchings from last Saturday’s rain-affected Tauranga meeting.
“She was meant to resume at Tauranga last weekend, but the track just got too deep by that stage of the day,” he said.
“She’ll get a better track on Saturday and has a nice draw (1), so if she can be three-back the fence and they go quickly enough, she’s certainly capable of running a good race.
“In saying that, it’s certainly a run to get her back and going, and the best of her will be seen when she’s back up over further.”
Meanwhile. Full of Sincerity, who was last seen in New Zealand when finishing third in last season’s Gr.1 New Zealand Derby (2400m), will commence a new campaign at Flemington on Saturday, albeit at a distance far short of his best.
“He’s been a long time off the scene, and he’ll be needing further fairly quickly, but running at the mile first-up would’ve been a bit tough,” Forsman said.
“He’ll have this day out, he may be a little bit outpaced over 1400m, but Flemington will suit him in giving him time to wind up and do his best work late.
“We’ll be looking to get up over a mile with him soon but no great plans at this stage, more just trying to get him back to his better form.”