J.J. Atkins best bets & betting strategy | Eagle Farm | 11/6/2022

The $1 million J.J. Atkins is one of two Group 1 races that will be run and won on Saturday, June 11, at Eagle Farm Racecourse. This 1600m event for two-year-olds under set weights has been won by plenty who went on to become stars, including Show A Heart, Press Statement, The Autumn Sun, Rothfire and Converge. In 2022, we expect another future champion to emerge from this race.

Chris Waller and James McDonald combine with race favourite Political Debate ($4), who comes off a narrow win on Saturday in The Phoenix (1500m), while the runner-up in that race, Sharp ‘N’ Smart ($5), sits on the third line of betting with online bookmakers. Splitting those two runners on the second line of betting is one of three fillies in the race – Sheeza Belter ($4.50), who was impressive winning the Group 2 BRC Sires’ Produce Stakes (1400m) on May 28. They are the only three runners in single figures, with Brosnan ($13), Lethal Thoughts ($15) and Owen Country ($15) on the next few lines of betting.

Heroic Son ($201), Lethal Thoughts, Cocobrew Express ($201) and Brereton ($17) are all likely to go forward from their wide gates, while the fancied runners should all get lovely runs in transit around midfield.

Continue reading for HorseBetting’s top selections and $100 betting strategy for the 2022 J.J. Atkins.

We have been pretty vocal about how good we think POLITICAL DEBATE might be, so we definitely won’t be jumping off him in Saturday’s Group 1 event. Despite only winning by the smallest of margins on Saturday in The Phoenix over 1500m, he did actually have some excuses. The colt by So You Think was three weeks between runs, going from 1200m to 1500m and getting on to a dry track for the first time, plus, James McDonald admitted to going too early in the straight. Waller has won three J.J. Atkins before, and he has used the seven-day back-up before, with Press Statement winning seven days prior to winning this very race in 2015. Political Debate should take plenty of improvement from his win on the weekend, the mile will suit and he should benefit from having the run on a dry Eagle Farm track. From barrier nine, McDonald will have this two-year-old in a beautiful spot midfield off the fence, allow him to relax and then sprint in the straight. The timing looks perfect for this horse. Keen.

It was heart-in-mouth stuff if you took the even money about Political Debate on Saturday, because SHARP ‘N’ SMART was coming hard and fast in the concluding stages. The New Zealand-based two-year-old was first up in six weeks, so he too should improve with the added fitness, but unlike Political Debate, he was already proven over the trip, winning a Listed race over 1600m at Pukekohe the start prior. Trained by champion New Zealand trainers Graeme & Deborah Rogerson, the gelding by Redwood looks the danger to Political Debate once again, should he handle the quick back-up. We do think that his run was flattered slightly by the fact that he got to follow the favourite everywhere and then have the last crack, so we don’t believe he will turn the tables, but he certainly has to be respected.

If there is to be an upset, John Sargent’s OWEN COUNTY could be the horse to do it. The gelded son of Dundeel has been impressive winning two of his three starts and he will no doubt love getting to 1600m for the first time. Keagan Latham will have some obstacles in front of him, with barrier 17 likely to see the horse settle near last, so he will have to do plenty of chasing should he cause an upset. The other slight knock on this horse is the fact that all three runs and three of his four barrier trials have all been on a surface rated Soft 7 or worse – the other trial was on the synthetic track. He will relish the rise in trip, so we must include this horse in our numbers.

J.J. Atkins 2022 selections & best bets

• 4

  POLITICAL DEBATE

• 10

  SHARP ‘N’ SMART

• 9

  OWEN COUNTY

• 16

  SHEEZA BELTER

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