Form analyst The Watchdog has cast his expert eye over Friday afternoon’s Group 2 RAM Security Cranbourne Cup heats (520m) and is predicting ‘white hot’ Lara trainer David Geall and star sprinter Koblenz to steal the show.
Koblenz has won 21 of his 34 starts in sensational fashion, but a Group trophy has thus far proven elusive.
The superbly-bred son of Fernando Bale and Geall’s dual G1 winner Up Hill Jill has been placed in both the G3 Warragul St. Leger and G3 Cranbourne Classic and The Watchdog is confident a feature race breakthrough is imminent.
Click HERE for TAB’s ‘All In’ Cranbourne Cup market
Superstar Tiggerlong Tonk is $3.80 favourite in TAB’s ‘All in’ Cup market, but while The Watchdog expects Tiggerlong Tonk to qualify for next Saturday night’s final, he’s made $4 second elect Koblenz his standout investment.
Koblenz has drawn Box 2 in the fourth of six heats, where he’s $1.50 favourite to turn the tables on last start Sandown Park conqueror Invictus Rising.
“He’s one of my favourite greyhounds,” said The Watchdog.
The Watchdog’s $50 investment
$27 on Koblenz @ $4 win
$8 on Fernando Mick @ $21 win
$5 on Hill Top Jack @ $101 win
$10 on Hill Top Jack @ $26 place
“He (Koblenz) is just bulletproof. He does everything right. I think he leads all the way in his heat. I think $4 (All in) is a pretty good price. He’ll probably start about 6/4 ($2.50) in the final if he draws a box.”
Searching for value, The Watchdog is sticking with the Geall kennel and is keen to speculate with G1 Maturity runner-up Fernando Mick at $21 and Koblenz’s littermate Hill Top Jack, a G1 Maturity and G3 Cranbourne Classic finalist, at a very appealing $101 and $26 place dividend.
“I know Fernando Mick can be a little bit hard to follow, he’s hit or miss early, but he’s got an amazing turn of foot once he gets balanced,” The Watchdog said.
“Hill Top Jack is taking a big step up in class here. But from Box 1, I think he’s going to hold the top on the first turn or sit just behind Run Baba Run and he’ll go past her mid-race and at the 101s he’s huge value.
“I think he’ll qualify for the final and if he draws the red he goes around at $6 and even if he draws poorly he’s probably only a $10 or $12 chance, so the place option is huge value.”
WATCH: Hill Top Jack (6) overcomes trouble to win a heat of the Winter Cup at Cranbourne in June, clocking a flying 30.07sec. He finished second in the final a week later.
