The Watchdog says there are “no excuses” for Ferdinand Boy in the $70,335 Group 2 Macey’s Bistro Warrnambool Cup Final (450m) this Wednesday night.
“The ‘cups king’ has come up favourite at $2.70, and rightly so,” said the expert form analyst.
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“Last week, he was brilliant – 6.52sec to the first marker and a sub-25 (second) run. The box draw has panned out perfectly and from box one, I’d expect him to lead.
“He should be able to ‘pounce on the lead’ and he’ll be going around 24.95sec, so they can’t afford to make any mistakes behind him if they want to reel him in.
“But $2.70 is probably about as low as you would want to go.”
“He (Mepunga Mustang) loves Warrnambool; seven from eight now (after his heat win).”
– THE WATCHDOG
The Watchdog has rated Mepunga Mustang (Box 8) on top at $4, just ahead of Ferdinand Boy.
“He loves Warrnambool – seven from eight now – and he’s about a 24.85sec dog with a clear run.
“He should gain a clear passage in the first 100 metres and be able to balance up and turn for home in the top three. The last 150 metres is where he does his best work.”
The Watchdog’s $20 spend
$10 Trifecta on 1,8 / 1,4,7,8 / 1,4,5,6,7,8 (41.66% return)
$6 Exacta on 1,8 / 1,4,7,8 (100% return)
$4 Exacta on 8 / 1,4,5,7 (100% return)
The Watchdog says Compliance (Box 6), at $6, “from a punting perspective is probably value”.
“But if Ferdinand Boy zips away from him, I don’t think Compliance can reel him in. The box draw is a great leveller there.”
Meanwhile, Fearless Rory was “brilliant in his heat win”, according to the form guru.
“He had to pick up a fast greyhound in Zachary, who’s a bold frontrunning type. So, to be able to do that, I thought that was a great effort. But box four is not ideal.”
The Watchdog is also buoyant on the chances of Old News (Box 7) in the final.
“Old News is very strong and likes to stay wide. If they happen to bunch up in front, he’s going to play a major role.
“I do think the ‘wings’ will control it. But it wouldn’t surprise me if Old News happened to run over the top.”
Group 2 WARRNAMBOOL CUP FINAL (450m)
Warrnambool Race 8, Wednesday 8:38pm
First prize $47,000
1 FERDINAND BOY (David Geall, Lara VIC)
2 ASTRO BOY (Jessica Sharp, Avalon VIC)
3 JERWOOD BALE (Rebecca Gibbons, Avalon VIC)
4 FEARLESS RORY (Ashlee Terry, Lara VIC)
5 FERNANDO MICK (David Geall, Lara VIC)
6 COMPLIANCE (Karen Pitt, Pearcedale VIC)
7 OLD NEWS (Brooke Ennis, Lara VIC) 
8 MEPUNGA MUSTANG (Jeff Britton, Anakie VIC)
Reserves
9 NIKOLI BALE SCRATCHED
10 MOBILE LEGEND SCRATCHED
WATCH: Warrnambool Derby winner MEPUNGA MUSTANG (5) showed terrific late acceleration in his heat of the Group 2 Warrnambool Cup (450m) in 24.93 seconds on April 28. Results
