Expert form analyst The Watchdog is siding with David Geall’s country cups juggernaut in Saturday night’s Group 2 RAM Security Cranbourne Cup final (520m).
Geall is chasing a fourth country cup title for 2021, with superstar Ferdinand Boy having collected the Ballarat, Healesville and Shepparton Cups, and he has the two favourites at Cranbourne in fastest heat winner Fernando Mick (Box 2) and the brilliant Koblenz (Box 4).
TAB’s market has Fernando Mick ($3.70), shading Koblenz ($3.80).
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However, The Watchdog believes Fernando Mick will struggle to repeat his near-record heat heroics from an inside draw and is confident Koblenz can celebrate a deserved Group breakthrough after winning 22 of his 35 starts.
“I’m really with Koblenz, I think he can lead all-the-way,” said The Watchdog.
“They softened him up mid-race in his heat. Kinson Bale really poured on the pressure but he was still able to kick away turning for home.”
“Gracie Bale was charging to the line but he was really gutsy in the finish, Koblenz. I still think he can go quicker than the 29.86 sec (PB). He runs his 5.39sec, he might be off and gone through the corner and they’re going to have to work hard to reel him in.
“I think Fernando Mick is going to have his work cut out in that first 50 metres, there’s so much speed in three, four and five. We did find him at the 21s ‘pre-post’, but I think he’s under the odds at the $3.70 at the moment.”
“I think the real outsider that must be respected has to be Aston Shine. This greyhound has gone to another level in recent months.”
The Watchdog is strongly in Koblenz’s corner and will stand the likely leader out in his suggested Cup trifecta, while looking wider, he believes Graeme Jose’s recent G2 Bendigo Cup finalist Aston Shine (Box 5) is “enormous value” at $34 win and $6 place returns.
“I think the real outsider that must be respected has to be Aston Shine,” The Watchdog said.
“This greyhound has gone to another level in recent months. Graeme Jose’s kennel is absolutely flying. We know with the way the race is going to be run, Koblenz is expected to spear the lids, move to the left and Aston Shine will get that nice cart across. Especially with Jax Bale (Box 6) not beginning well at present, he should get that room in the first 50m.”
GROUP 2 CRANBOURNE CUP FINAL
Saturday 30 October – 525m
1 DAPH’S ASCEND (Andrea Dailly, Anakie)
2 FERNANDO MICK (David Geall, Lara)
3 LOTS OF CHATTER (Graeme Jose, Catani)
4 KOBLENZ (David Geall, Lara)
5 ASTON SHINE (Graeme Jose, Catani)
6 JAX BALE (Andrea Dailly, Anakie)
7 LALA KIWI (Andrea Dailly, Anakie)
8 LUCKY LANCE (Gavin Kearns, Churchill)
Reserves
9 GRACIE BALE (Daniel Gibbons, Avalon)
10 XAVIEN BALE (Samantha Grenfell, Anakie)
The Watchdog’s suggested $20 spend
$6 Exacta: 1,4,5/1,4,5,7 (66.66%)
$7 Trifecta: 4/1,5,7/1,3,5,6,7,8 (46.66%)
$7 place: Aston Shine @ $6
