How The Watchdog would spend $50 on TAB’s ‘All In’ market

Form expert The Watchdog is pulling on the leash ahead of Thursday night’s eight sensational heats of the Group 2 Warrnambool Cup (450m).

TAB has installed superstar Shima Shine as $4.80 favourite in ‘All In’ betting, ahead of Equalizer, trained by five-time Warrnambool Cup winner Jason Thompson, and Ballarat and Shepparton Cup hero Ferdinand Boy, both at $6.50.

Since brilliantly winning the Horsham Cup in March, Shima Shine has been beaten at odds-on in the heats of (in order) the Golden Easter Egg, Ballarat Cup and Perth Cup and The Watchdog is looking elsewhere at The Bool.

“He’s under the odds. He’s got a pretty tough heat and box 2 isn’t ideal. He can obviously still win but I wouldn’t be rushing in to take those odds.”

In fact, The Watchdog has identified three of Shima Shine’s heat rivals – Mr Fix It ($51), Zambora Lou ($51) and Bulleteer ($201) – among his best ‘All In’ value.

“Mr Fix It has brilliant early speed and is normally reliable at box-rise.

“Zambora Lou is another one that can run some time. He’s gone 25.05sec there previously. I’m hoping one of those two can spear the lids and get the job done in that heat and give us a runner in the final.

“Bulleteer is just crazy odds. I know he’s got to take on Shima Shine, Mr Fix It and co but he’s got his box out wide.”

The Watchdog is also happy to risk the in-form Equalizer due to his come-from-behind racing pattern.

“Those last three wins have been breathtaking. I think he can win but it’s not something I want to take $6.50 about a greyhound who’s going to need a heap of luck in both heat and final because he will get back.”

While going around Shima Shine and Equalizer, The Watchdog likes Ferdinand Boy’s chances of qualifying for and then winning a third country cup for 2021.

“It’s a solid heat but he should lead and I think he should win. So I’m happy to take the $6.50 about him pre-post and if he comes up with the pink (draw) in the final he probably goes around 6/4.”

The Watchdog is also extremely bullish about the prospects of $101 chance Kaheem Bale.

“I know he’s got the supreme task of taking on Tiggerlong Tonk but this dog is legit!

“He’s had a bit of a freshen-up. The Delbridge camp, who are absolutely flying, I think they’ll have him cherry ripe. The wide draw is going to suit, he’s lit up Ballarat over the trip before and I think Warrnambool will suit him.”