With four wins from six starts on heavy tracks, Expat (NZ) (Makfi) shapes as a major contender in The Nivison.
The heavy rain in Sydney has been music to the ears of Expat’s connections, and not just because the mare relishes wet tracks.
Not only has Expat posted seven of her eight wins on rain-affected ground, but the heavy conditions are expected to help cushion the effects of a 200m drop in distance.
After finishing a last-start seventh on a firm surface in the Golden Pendant (1400m), Expat will line up in Saturday’s The Nivison (1200m) at Randwick boasting arguably the best heavy track credentials of the 11 runners.
She will also be without blinkers, trainer Mark Newnham hoping their removal will allow jockey Tom Sherry to ride her more positively out of the barriers.
“I don’t think she has been jumping as quickly as she once was out of the gates and that certainly affected her performance the other day,” Newnham said.
“She used that petrol in the first furlong to get control of the race and it probably told the last part.
“On wet ground, middle draw, blinkers off, he (Sherry) can ride her aggressively and she is very fit.
“That fitness coming back from 1400 to 1200 might just play into her hands.”
The heavy conditions also appeal for stablemate King Frankel, a recent arrival from Europe who made a stunning local debut when he swept around the field to win by more than five lengths over 1850m at Newcastle.
Despite regarding him as “probably a weighted certainty” in that race, Newnham felt King Frankel did a terrific job off just one barrier trial and expected him to relish the extra journey of Saturday’s Cerrone Handicap (2000m).
“I thought he might need more than 10 furlongs to be competitive in this grade, but he showed at Newcastle that he has a better turn of foot than I expected,” Newnham said.
“Maybe that was because of the heavy ground, but that might not matter this week either.
“Winning first-up on a heavy 10 off one trial, you would think he could only improve.”
