Empire Rose Stakes betting tips & strategy | Saturday, October 30

The $1 million Empire Rose Stakes is the first of four Group 1 events on Victoria Derby Day at Flemington. HorseBetting’s Victorian form analyst presents his race preview and $100 betting strategy for the 1600m weight-for-age event, which is set to jump at 3pm AEDT. Multiple Group 1 winner Tofane is a $3.60 favourite to take out her third Group 1 event of the year, whilst proven performers Colette and Mystic Journey share the second line of betting at $6.50.

The return to form of Mystic Journey has been nothing short of impressive despite not breaking through for a win in her first two starts this campaign. We were with her in the Group 2 Rose Of Kingston Stakes, where she simply settled too far back in the running and could not run down fellow Tasmanian horse Still A Star. There is no questioning Mystic Journey’s class; she just seems to find a lot of trouble in her races. However, she finally draws a good barrier in gate three, and with two wins already to her name at the Flemington mile, we expect Luke Nolen will be steering her back into the winner’s stall. She was one of many hard-luck stories in the race last year, and we fancy the mare better known as ‘Betty’ to right those wrongs here.

Still A Star is as consistent a horse as you could wish to own or train, and considering she did nothing wrong in the Rose Of Kingston last time out when winning, she cannot be ignored here. Online bookmakers have the Bill Ryan-trained Toronado mare as an $11 chance heading into the Empire Rose, but if she brings a similar effort to her last-start win, she should be running a big race at her maiden Group 1 start.

The one at a big price we are having a small each-way play on is the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained Steinem, who ran one hell of a cheeky race in the Group 2 Tristarc Stakes. A 1.25-length loss to Colette in a Group 2 in the wet is nothing to be sniffed at, and considering she will only get better over further than the 1400m, she should be running on strongly here. From barrier 14, she will need to go back in the field and give her rivals a fair head start, but if she can produce a sharp turn of foot like she has in the past, we expect her to be fighting out the finish.

Best bets for the Empire Rose Stakes