By Michael Guerin
The man who could win tomorrow’s $1m IRT New Zealand Trotting Cup has one main question on his mind – Is Merlin better than Akuta?
That could be the equation to work out who wins our greatest harness race for Australian superstar of the sulky Cam Hart, who will partner the surprise favourite Swayzee in the Cup at Addington tomorrow.
The fact Swayzee is now favourite isn’t a surprise in itself as he is the defending champion and gave the locals a decent old spanking last year.
The surprise part comes from him even being in the race as he wasn’t originally nominated and trainer Jason Grimson had to pay a $28,000 late entry fee last Monday to allow him to defend his title.
That looks the investment of the season after Leap To Fame pulled out of the Cup on Friday with continued blood report issues, robbing this race of its champion but creating a vacuum that Swayzee will fill as its most-talked about horse.
While the late payment was a shock, the preparation itself is just as radical, with Swayzee having cruised to victory in a A$60,000 Country Cup at Young (NSW) on Friday night before being loaded on a Sydney-Auckland-Christchurch plane yesterday.
After that wacky week if Swayzee can defend his title it will go down as the wildest back to back NZ Cup double since Wildwood Junior won the New Zealand Cup in both 1909 and 1910 without racing in between.
Tomorrow’s Cup looks a lot like the one Swayzee dominated last year, with the locals a good but not vintage bunch with the exception of Merlin and Don’t Stop Dreaming.
Last year Swayzee started from the same second line draw he faces tomorrow but was able to get in front of his only real danger Akuta and as soon as he reached the pacemaking role the race was over.
Hart, the personable 25-year-old who has become swept almost every major harness race in Australia in the last three years, says he would love a carbon copy of last year’s tactics.
“If we can weave a path through them and get around to the lead then he would be very, very hard to catch,” he says.
“The race feels very similar to last year and Merlin looks the one to beat but I am not sure he is going any better than Akuta was this time last year.
“My horse jogged his win on Friday and as long as he travels over well I think he is at least as good as last year.
“So if he beat Akuta I think he can beat Merlin.
“I think he will beat the other ones but he hasn’t raced Merlin or Don’t Stop Dreaming.”
Whether either of those Kiwis, or less likely anything else, can beat the best version of Swayzee may come down to driver intent.
If his rivals let Hart roll to the front in the middle stages maybe they can divebomb him late, particularly as Merlin’s driver Zachary Butcher specialises in the perfectly-timed attack.
But in reality if running past Swayzee at the end of 3200m is your pre-race plan, you might need a new one.
There is also the chance Butcher or Blair Orange driving Don’t Stop Dreaming might get to the front and decide Swayzee won’t be gifted a yellow brick road to the Addington winner’s circle, forcing him to sit parked and outmuscle them.
Hart knows which option he would prefer but says a failed lead bid doesn’t mean defeat.
“If he has to sit parked them I am still confident he can put them to the sword when I want and win.”
If one of the Kiwi favourites does deny Swayzee the lead they may ultimately lose that battle but it could also leave the big Aussie vulnerable to the other favoured Kiwi or Auckland Cup winner and renowned swooper Better Eclipse.
After one of the most dramatic build-ups in the history of this magnificent race, who wins may come down to that decision made in a fleeting moment on the second lap.