Australian Derby betting tips & top odds | Randwick | 10/04/21

ATC Australian Derby betting preview

A field of 16 three-year-olds has been assembled to battle out one of the nation’s classic races, the $2 million ATC Australian Derby. Won by Octagonal, Criterion and Dundeel, the 2400m Group 1 at set weights could unearth another champion at 3:15pm AEST this Saturday at Royal Randwick. Yaletown looks the likely leader, while The Frontman, Khoekhoe and Young Werther can offer a forward showing. The sole filly in the race, Montefilia, is the $3.60 favourite in front of Rosehill Guineas runner-up Sky Lab at $5, while NZ Derby winner Rocket Spade and Randwick Guineas victor Lion’s Roar share the third line of betting at $9. HorseBetting.com.au provides our top three selections as well as how we are spending $100 on the race.

Montefilia was superb second up at 2000m in the Rosehill Guineas, coming from second last at the 800m mark to run third only a length off Mo’unga and Sky Lab. The dual Group 1-winning filly reeled off the quickest final 800m of that race and the quickest final 200m of the day at that distance, so the added 400m looks perfect for the daughter of Kermadec. Trained by David Payne, she was sent around as favourite in the VRC Oaks during the spring but settled closer than usual and was left in front at the wrong time. Drawn in barrier four under Jason Collett, she is likely to settle midfield before finishing off stronger than her rivals. She is bred to stay, gets weight relief against the boys and will be in the right spot at the right time.

While a Derby is generally the target race for any staying three-year-old, this really has been the goal for Lion’s Roar, and he just so happened to pick up another Group 1 in the Randwick Guineas along the way. He was a victim of circumstance in the Rosehill Guineas and just struggled for running room at a vital stage to finish fourth, beaten less than two lengths. While he has drawn awkwardly in barrier 13, Brenton Avdulla will take him back and have him screaming home over the mile and a half. With three good runs this time in, the son of Contributer should be cherry ripe for this.

One runner who we know will see out the trip is New Zealand Derby winner Rocket Spade. The son of Fastnet Rock has won five of his nine races and is looking to make it four straight victories and his second Derby. The margins in both the Avondale Guineas and NZ Derby were only minor, but trainers Lance O’Sullivan and Andrew Scott gave him a good hitout in a 1600m 3YO Plate where he put paid to his rivals by 2.5 lengths under 60.5kg before he got on the plane to Australia. Kerrin McEvoy should be able to box seat from barrier two, which will give Rocket Spade every chance to show his staying prowess in the concluding stages.

Best bets for 2021 Australian Derby