Kingsford Smith Cup preview & betting strategy | May 27, 2023

The Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup will be run and won for the 58th time this Saturday afternoon at Eagle Farm. This year’s edition of the weight-for-age race has a number of converging formlines, most notably from the Victory Stakes and Doomben 10,000.

Outside of the Queensland runners, we have Think About It shooting for his sixth straight win and Eduardo coming in first-up after skipping the 10,000. After finishing second and third, respectively, behind Apache Chase last year, can Paulele and Eleven Eleven go a couple better this time, or will the rapid rise of Think About It continue with his first Group 1 victory at his ninth career start?

Kingsford Smith Cup 2023 betting odds

Takeover Target Stakes winner Think About It has opened up as the favourite at $4 with online bookmakers. Following him, we have joint second favourites at $7 in Rothfire and King Of Sparta, who finished one-two in the Victory Stakes four weeks ago. There are only two more runners under double figures with the bookies, with A Case Of You ($8) and Converge ($9) expected to run well once again.

Kingsford Smith Cup 2023 speed map

The 2023 Kingsford Smith Cup appears to have an abundance of speed with Eduardo, Rothfire, Emerald Kingdom and Gentleman Roy all natural leaders and expected to fight for the lead early on. With three of those four leaders jumping inside of the race favourite, it should give Think About It a nice slipstream to fall into just outside of Converge, who should push up from barrier one. The rest of the field could settle a few different ways, with a three-wide running line expected to be prevalent as the full field of 16 try to find a position over the first 300m before the first turn.

Continue reading for HorseBetting’s top selections and $100 betting strategy for the Kingsford Smith Cup 2023.

Kingsford Smith Cup 2023 preview & form

Think About It proved to be a perennial winner during his last preparation, putting together four straight wins while jumping in class at every start. His dominant all-the-way victory in the Group 3 Liverpool City Cup in February put everyone on notice about Joseph Pride’s very smart gelding. Not long after that, Pride told everyone that he had his Stradbroke Handicap horse, and that he would return a bigger and better runner after a short spell. His first-up performance in the Listed Takeover Target Stakes was as impressive a win as you will see; he settled three-wide with cover, gave all his rivals weight and then gave them a beating while going over the line throttled down with his ears pricked. Going to Group 1 level for the first time is obviously a query, but Pride wouldn’t be bringing him here if he didn’t think he had the quality to win the race.

After two unlucky runs during Melbourne’s autumn carnival in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate and William Reid Stakes, King Of Sparta returned from a short freshen to run second in the Group 2 Victory Stakes last start. While the four-year-old gelding had a tough run, he was the best of the beaten brigade and only went down by a head on the line to Rothfire. Unlike our top tip, this guy has raced at Listed or Group level at 15 of his 22 starts and is a proven performer. If we get a hot tempo and the race favourite struggles at his maiden Group 1 start, we will be looking for this Peter & Paul Snowden-trained galloper finish off strongly.

We were with A Case Of You in the Doomben 10,000 at massive odds after he was unlucky in the William Reid Stakes on his Australian debut, before getting no luck at all on the inside of runners in the Victory Stakes. This five-year-old son of Hot Streak has been ridden negatively at all three of his Australian starts, and with even luck last start in the 10,000, you could argue that he could have challenged for the placings, as he was only beaten by 2.6 lengths by Giga Kick. He won’t be getting our money this time, but he is worth throwing into any multiples just in case.

One of the on-speed runners that has proven he can sustain a gallop and handle pressure from other leaders is the Desleigh Forster-trained Emerald Kingdom. This gelded son of Bryannbo’s Gift loves racing at Eagle Farm and has won five of his 11 attempts at the 1300m and 1350m during his career. After settling behind a solid tempo in The Archer at Rockhampton last start, the eight-year-old fought on and was only defeated by Alpine Edge in the final stride. At $34 with online betting sites, Emerald Kingdom could be another roughie to consider for trifectas and first fours.

Kingsford Smith Cup 2023 selections & best bets

• 11

  THINK ABOUT IT

• 7

  KING OF SPARTA

• 2

  A CASE OF YOU

• 12

  EMERALD KINGDOM

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