Rosehill race-by-race preview & best bets | Tancred Stakes Day

RACE 1: MIDWAY BM72 (1300M)

We kick-off the program with a Midway handicap over the 1300m and we’re of the opinion Tampering is a strong each-way bet to get things underway on Saturday. This six-year-old gelding is first-up after a 112-day spell and has been competitive in much stronger race than he sees on resumption. He kicked off his campaign running into Waterford twice and wasn’t disgraced in BM78 company before stepping into Open grade, eventually being tipped out after looking to the 2000m against Zoumon on December 3. He’s one start for one win at this course and distance with a first-up record that reads 7:3-1-0, plus a strong winning barrier trial under the belt, Tampering looks overs to us with online bookmakers. Apprentice jockey Jess Del Fran will be leading a long way out, we’re just hoping she can utilize her claim to kick clear to score.

• 2

  TAMPERING

• 1

  ASTERO

• 14

  BORDER CONTROL

• 12

  TWO UP

RACE 2: GROUP 3 T L BAILLIEU HANDICAP (1400M)

The second race of the card sees a Group 3 contest over the 1400m for the two-year-olds and Disneck goes on top with the likelihood of Brave Mead heading to Moonee Valley on Friday night. We’re yet to see if the Black Opal form from March 12 at Canberra will stack up for the three-year-olds but this race should be a good indicator. Disneck, Make A Call and The Years all come out of the same race and we thought Disneck was the biggest forgive behind Autumn Ballet, despite being the furthest away. He crept up the inside rail late to run fifth but being on the worst part of the track did this son of Trapeze Artist no favours on that occasion. He still sprinted home nicely and now the step up to 1400m comes at an ideal time in the preparation. Rachel King should get the one-one position throughout and with a genuine tempo on, Disneck should give follows a good sight. Brave Mead is the saver bet in the race if the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace team do elect to head to NSW.

• 2

  DISNECK

• 4

  BRAVE MEAD

• 3

  THE YEARS

• 5

  MAKE A CALL

RACE 3: GROUP 2 TULLOCH STAKES (2000M)

The Group 2 Tulloch Stakes is for the three-year-old boys and we’re simply found it too hard to go against the New Zealand raider, Full Of Sincerity. He brings the right form from across the Tasman running third behind Sharp N Smart in the New Zealand Derby when powering home late and although he’s steps back in trip to the 2000m on Saturday, it shouldn’t be an issue for this son of Puccini. You have to trust the Andrew Foresman stable when they bring gallopers over to Australia, especially when they’re running into horses with the credentials of Group 1 class. Sharp N Smart is a strong favourite in the Australian Derby next weekend for a reason and the fact Full Of Sincerity was just 1.2 lengths off him last time out, we respect the form too much to be against him here. Nash Rawiller takes the reins and should only be needing some luck in transit to be taking out the Group 2 Tulloch Stakes before doing the likely back-up into the Australian Derby.

• 1

  FULL OF SINCERITY

• 4

  STROKE OF LUCK

• 2

  AUSBRED RISING SUN

• 3

  MAJOR BEEL

RACE 4: GROUP 3 NEVILLE SELLWOOD STAKES (2000M)

Gear Up goes on top in the Neville Sellwood Stakes and we think the price on offer is very generous. Formerly with the Joseph O’Brien stable in Europe, Annabel Neasham has taken over the training of this lovely colt out of Teofilo. His form from overseas simply reads outstanding for this Group 3 on Saturday and his trials since arriving in Australia have indicated he’s acclimatised very well to the conditions. His latest effort saw him coasting through the line over 1200m at Warwick farm and looks cherry ripe for this first-up assignment. He’s been a competitive weight-for-age galloper prior to coming down under and in a race where he only has to carry 55.5kg, he’s not going to know himself after being forced to lug massive weights in Europe. The wet track won’t be a concern and from barrier four, Gear Up should get every opportunity to make his Australian debut a winning one.

• 4

  GEAR UP

• 8

  THIRD REALM

• 5

  SUNSHINE RISING

• 11

  ATHABASCAN

RACE 5: GROUP 3 STAR KINGDOM STAKES (1200M)

Where do we even start on the Star Kingdom Stakes. There are 16 gallopers engaged for the 1200m sprint and the market rightly doesn’t know where to look with the favourite lining up at $7.50. Weona Smartone gets the nod for us though coming here first-up and some terrific form under his belt from last preparation. The six-year-old gelding rounded out his prep finishing fourth behind Private Eye in the Nature Strip Stakes on October 29 and was out of his comfort zone forced to take a sit rather than lead. He’s now first-up with an outstanding record of six starts for five wins and doesn’t mind a wet track either. He’s won a barrier trial leading into this and although there’s tempo drawn all over the map, we expect Ryan Maloney to lead on this son of Shamexpress throughout and hold on for dear life as his rivals will be powering over him late, but too late.

• 1

  WEONA SMARTONE

• 15

  BACCHANALIA

• 10

  WAIHAHA FALLS

• 4

  GRAVINA

RACE 6: GROUP 2 EMANCIPATION STAKES (1500M)

The Group 2 Emancipation is another wide-open contest, this time for the fillies and mares. Mustang Valley goes on top for us though as another each-way prospect on the program. You’d have to imagine the Coolmore Classic form behind Espiona is the one to follow in this race and Mustang Valley never got a chance to show her best. She was well back on a day you simply couldn’t make up that kind of ground to win, plus she’s much more effective on soft ground. While we concede she’s drawn awkwardly in barrier 15, it may not be a problem as the day goes on, with soft ground likely to chop up the inside going. If our assessment is correct, we could see Mustang Valley flying over the top of her rivals late with the genuine tempo expected in this field.

• 2

  MUSTANG VALLEY

• 13

  TOREGENE

• 6

  STATEMENT

• 3

  PROMISE OF SUCCESS

RACE 7: GROUP 1 VINERY STUD STAKES (2000M)

Prowess makes her way to Australia after finding Group 1 success in the Bonecrusher Stakes at Pukekohe on March 11 and looks one of the better bets on the Rosehill program. Her dominance of the middle distance three-year-olds across the ditch has been on full display, when prior to her Group 1 win, she had put together three straight wins against her age group; including The Group 2 Auckland Guineas and the Group 2 Fillies Classic. She’s been excellent and if she can bring that form to Australia, we believe she’s clearly the one to beat. She’s well in at the set weights of 56kg on her rating, and while we respect the likes of Fireburn and Pavitra, it’s hard to see them chasing down Prowess turning for home. She’ll be taking her customary position of leading or just sit in behind a crossing Soul Choice, and from there Mark Zahra be pinching a break turning for home. She’s fit, has class, and looks the one to beat in the Vinery Stud Stakes.

• 1

  PROWESS

• 2

  FIREBURN

• 3

  PAVITRA

• 4

  POLYGON

RACE 8: GROUP 1 TANCRED STAKES (2400M)

The Group 1 Ranvet Stakes form has the two favourites for this year’s Tancred Stakes as Montefilia ($3.70) and Gold Trip ($4.80) hold the most money for punters so far. Knights Order ($6) and Cleveland ($9) will be sure to have their admirers as well.

See our 2023 Tancred Stakes betting preview here

RACE 9: GROUP 3 DONCASTER PRELUDE (1500M)

Times Square is a lightly-raced four-year-old we’re willing to take a risk on in the Doncaster Prelude on Saturday. She’s first-up for the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace duo and with some solid wet track form under her belt, she looks a big price provided they miss making the field in the Emancipation earlier in the program. She won her latest start at Longchamp over the 1400m on a heavy deck on October 23 and hasn’t seen a racecourse since, but has classy efforts going back into her French campaign including Group 1 winner Nashwa on June 19. She gets in here with the 53kg on her back and if she can run up to her overseas form, we see no reason why this daughter of Zarak can’t be right in this Group 3 contest. Her first-up record sees three starts for two wins to her name and finding a race like this first-up shows great intent from the yard. She’s get a good run throughout the 1500m journey and at the each-way quote, we’re happy to play.

• 14

  TIMES SQUARE

• 13

  MUNHAMEK

• 12

  WATERFORD

• 5

  CROSS TALK

RACE 10: BM88 (1400M)

Substantial is a cracking bet to finish the program at Rosehill on Saturday afternoon as he’s first-up for the Peter & Paul Snowden yard. He comes here with a record of 9:3-3-1 and rarely ran a bad race in Europe before arriving here in Australia. He finished his campaign a winner at York over 1584m for former trainer William Haggas and won comfortably in a big field on a soft track on that occasion. He’s had an eye-catching jump out at Randwick behind In The Congo and you can easily make the argument Substantial’s work was more impressive than the winner of the trial. He looks better than BM88 company to us and he’s clearly the bet to finish the card for us.

• 11

  SUBSTANTIAL

• 8

  WICKLOW

• 7

  TAMERLANE

• 10

  KATALIN