Five Diamonds preview & betting strategy | November 5, 2022

The inaugural running of the Five Diamonds will headline the meeting at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday as the Sydney Spring Carnival comes to a close. The Five Diamonds is a new race that has been introduced by Racing New South Wales to entice staying four-year-olds to keep racing into their five-year-old season. The prize pool for the Five Diamonds is a massive $2 million, with the winner of the 1800m race taking home $1.15 million.

Online bookmakers have the winner of the Five Diamonds Prelude, Ellsberg, as their clear market favourite at $2.45. Only two more runners are in single figures — the Annabel Neasham-trained Laws Of Indices ($5.50) and the Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr-trained Ayrton ($7.50). With a few of the horses in the Five Diamonds field having run on Tuesday, we could see a few more scratchings, which could reduce the field from 13 to a possible field of 10.

The Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou-trained Ellsberg will look to take up the running, jumping from barrier two, while Milford and Ayrton will look to cross from wider barriers and hold prominent, on-pace positions. Uncle Bryn, Diamil and Rebel Rama will aim to sit better than midfield on settling as all three of them jump from middle to outside barriers. Laws Of Indices and Rustic Steel look to be the only genuine swoopers and back markers engaged in this race, so they will need to keep in contact with the field and make sure they don’t get too far back in the running.

Continue reading for HorseBetting’s top selections and $100 betting strategy for the 2022 Five Diamonds.

Laws Of Indices will be dropping back from Group 1 grade having run in the Cox Plate, Toorak Handicap and Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes this preparation. This five-year-old son of Power has been in Australia for just over 12 months, and he has competed in Group 1 grade at all bar two of his 11 starts here. This guy is the clear class horse in this race along with the favourite as they have been very good at Group 1 level this preparation. If you can forget his run in the Cox Plate and go back to his two eye-catching efforts in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and Toorak Handicap, it is easy to make a very strong case for this guy in a five-year-old race over 100m at set weights and penalties.

We are by no means knocking the race favourite, but at this price it is hard to have Ellsberg on top, considering it will be his first attempt at a distance longer than 1600m. This five-year-old son of Spill The Beans was very good when winning the Five Diamonds Prelude as the race favourite, leading from barrier to winning post and beating most of the field that he will meet on Saturday. If he gets a soft lead out in front, with no pressure throughout the first half of the race, he could easily be too far in front of his rivals on the turn and kick away to win. Nevertheless, we are willing to take the risk that he doesn’t get an easy lead.

The John O’Shea-trained Diamil was a very good winner last start over 1600m at Randwick, and given that he was the favourite that day, it is puzzling that he is $11 with the betting sites for this race. If there is one runner in this field that can spoil the party for our top two picks, it could very well be this guy, so keep him safe in any exotics.

Ayrton sits on the third line of betting and is under the odds, in our opinion. Considering he has never won at the 1800m and he will have to cross from barrier 11 as he likes to race on-pace, it gives us enough negatives to have this guy at the bottom of the winning chances.

2022 Five Diamonds selections & best bets

• 2

  LAWS OF INDICES

• 1

  ELLSBERG

• 9

  DIAMIL

• 4

  AYRTON

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