Form expert The Watchdog has bravely predicted that Friday night’s Group 1 TAB Melbourne Cup final is favourite Aston Rupee’s “race to lose”.
Striving to become only the second sprinter after the great Bombastic Shiraz in 2003 to complete the ‘Triple Crown’ of the Topgun, Shootout and Melbourne Cup, Aston Rupee sits atop TAB’s market at $2.30 after a barnstorming come-from-behind heat victory; his eighth win from his past nine starts.
The time of 29.47sec was well outside Aston Rupee’s Sandown Park 515m track record of 28.79sec, but trainer Glenn Rounds rated the performance as good as any of his 19 wins.
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The Watchdog isn’t concerned about Aston Rupee drawing Box 4 for the $500,000 to-the-winner TAB Melbourne Cup final (Race 7 on Friday’s sensational Sandown Park card at 8:53pm) and is standing ‘the world’s fastest greyhound’ out in his Trifecta and Exacta investments.
“I do think it’s Aston Rupee’s race to lose,” said The Watchdog.
“I think at the $2.30 available, that’s his right price and it’s a good price.
“He’s quite well drawn in the middle. If you look at the speed with Koblenz and Aussie Secret, they’re probably going to go one-two into the bend and Aussie Secret is going to want to move off at the first turn, so there could be some bumping and if that happens, Jepara and Aston Rupee should get that nice run through.”
The Watchdog’s $20 spend
$10 Trifecta on 4 / 2,3,8 / 1,2,3,5,8 (83.33% return)
$5 Exacta on 4 / 2,3,8 (166.66% return)
$5 on Kinson Bale to win at $13
The Watchdog believes the majority of the outside brigade will find it very difficult to get into the race, but he makes a strong case for the Samantha Grenfell-trained $13 chance Kinson Bale in Box 8.
“He’s my smokey!” The Watchdog said.
“He’s gone to another level in the last few weeks, he’s getting stronger, he’s got that tremendous turn of foot once he hits the ground and he can handle a wide draw.
“Lala Kiwi, Lakeview Walter and Tiberia Bale have got even speed and he’ll be able to outpace them, so if Koblenz and Aussie Secret bump on the first turn, Kinson Bale could get across and he might get the fly mid-race.”
Group 1 TAB MELBOURNE CUP FINAL (515m)
Sandown Park, Friday 8:53pm – First prize $500,000
1 AUSSIE SECRET (Jason Thompson, Pearcedale VIC)
2 JEPARA (Angela Langton, Anakie VIC)
3 KOBLENZ (David Geall, Lara VIC)
4 ASTON RUPEE (Glenn Rounds, Devon Meadows VIC)
5 LALA KIWI (Andrea Dailly, Anakie VIC)
6 LAKEVIEW WALTER (Monique Whelan, Metung VIC)
7 TIBERIA BALE (Andrea Dailly, Anakie VIC)
8 KINSON BALE (Samantha Grenfell, Anakie VIC)
Reserves
9 TYPHOON SAMMY (Jason Thompson, Pearcedale VIC) SCRATCHED
10 JAX BALE (Andrea Dailly, Anakie VIC)
WATCH: ASTON RUPEE (3) had to overcome plenty of difficulties to win his heat of the Group 1 TAB Melbourne Cup in 29.47sec at Sandown Park last Friday night. Results
