Form analyst The Watchdog has assessed TAB’s ‘All In’ market on the Group 1 TAB Melbourne Cup ahead of Friday night’s eight ‘sudden death’ heats and is adopting a wait-and-see approach with series favourite Aston Rupee.
Aston Rupee, trained by Glenn Rounds, heads ‘All In’ betting at $4 after brilliantly winning the Group 1 Topgun and Group 3 Shootout at his past two starts and he’s $1.50 to take out the fourth heat from Box 3.
Click HERE for TAB’s ‘All In’ Melbourne Cup market
However, The Watchdog believes the speed on his outside, particularly from Group 1 Australian Cup runner-up Fernando Bluey (Box 4), is a huge concern.
“Had he drawn any other box, in any other race, I probably would have had him on top,” The Watchdog said.
“He is the best greyhound – no doubt – but he’s going to need a lot of things to go his way in his heat. If he draws anything outside Box 1 in the final you’re going to get $2.50 or better anyway, so I’d wait until next week.”
The Watchdog’s $50 investment
$25 on Koblenz to win at $4.80
$7 on Weblec Blazer to win at $10
$3 on Nikoli Bale to win at $51
$5 on Fernando Mick to win at $101
$10 on Fernando Mick to place at $26
The Watchdog didn’t have to look far in the market to locate his main Melbourne Cup investment; $4.80 second elect Koblenz (heat 1), trained by David Geall, who won the Melbourne Cup in 2018 with My Redeemer.
“He’s just Mr. Reliable. He does everything right. He runs his ‘5 flat’ to the first marker for fun and goes around 29.15sec. I think he can go a bit quicker. I think $4.80 is a fair price. If he comes up with a good draw in the final, he’s probably a $3 chance.”
Searching for ‘All In’ value, The Watchdog is very interested in Weblec Blazer (heat 6) at $10 and Nikoli Bale (heat 2) at $51, which have both drawn Box 1, while he’s especially bullish about Koblenz’s kennelmate Fernando Mick (heat 5) at a very appealing $101 the win and $26 the place.
“My best play of the whole series is Fernando Mick. He is well and truly over the odds. He has a slow beginner in Arizona Eyes in five, Do It comes up with the two and he’ll get a nice run behind Envy To Burn, but if Fernando Mick gets that room in the first 20 or 30 metres he’ll explode and I think he’ll go past Envy To Burn as they head into the first turn.”
WATCH: Group 1 Maturity Classic runner-up FERNANDO MICK (4) was devastating when running 29.62sec BON in a heat win of the Group 2 Cranbourne Cup last month. Results
