With Group 1 Topgun hero Aston Rupee dominating betting in the always intriguing G3 Shootout (515m) at Sandown Park this Thursday night, form analyst The Watchdog believes Topgun runner-up Tiggerlong Tonk is the value runner in the four-sprinter showdown.
Aston Rupee (Box 3) is $1.40 in TAB’s market after electrifying victories at his past two starts at Sandown Park (28.89sec) and The Meadows (29.66sec), and The Watchdog isn’t arguing with the prohibitive quote.
“The key factor is that he ran 5 ‘flat’ at Sandown Park and 5.02 in the Topgun, so he’s timing the start perfectly. Glenn Rounds has got him firing and the race format is going to suit him,” The Watchdog said.
“The $1.40, there’s no value but that’s his right price, he’s just that good.”
Click HERE for the latest Shootout odds
Veteran superstar Tiggerlong Tonk is striving to go back-to-back in the Shootout after leading all-the-way from Box 5 last year, where he turned the tables on Topgun winner Shima Shine.
At an attractive $4.80, The Watchdog is prepared to gamble that Tiggerlong Tonk can repeat the feat, this time from Box 7.
Young training star Correy Grenfell has done a magnificent job with Tiggerlong Tonk to have the 93-start warrior still performing at the top of his game in elite company, evidenced by his gallant second in last Saturday night’s Topgun, where he made the running from Box 6.
“I’ve put ‘Tonk’ on top, just purely because of the value,” said The Watchdog.
“He’s the reigning Shootout champion. He went 29.03sec last year and I think if he can produce something similar to that he’ll make ‘Rupee’ work.
“I expect him to lead and the key to his chances is that if McCooly’s Lad (Box 5) can step and move to the left, there might be a bit of bunching between the inside three runners. If Tiggerlong Tonk can steal a march off the back he probably needs to be three in front of Aston Rupee to be any chance of holding him off.
“You’re taking the risk that Aston Rupee finds a little bit of trouble.”
2021 SHOOTOUT (515m)
Thursday, 8.07pm – First prize $25,000
1 LAKEVIEW WALTER (Monique Whelan, Metung)
3 ASTON RUPEE (Glenn Rounds, Devon Meadows)
5 McCOOLY’S LAD (Anthony Azzopardi, Rowsley)
7 TIGGERLONG TONK (Correy Grenfell, Anakie)
Reserves
9 JUNGLE DEUCE (Raymond Smith, Forbes)
10 KINSON BALE (Samantha Grenfell, Anakie)
The Watchdog’s $20 spend
$15 Win: Tiggerlong Tonk @ $4.80
$5 Trifecta – 3 / 7 / 1 (100%)
WATCH: Tiggerlonk Tonk (5) defeats Shima Shine (7), Christo Bale (1) and last year’s Melbourne Cup champion Hard Style Rico (3) in the 2020 Shootout. Results
