“The favourite always wins…”
True or False?
With the biggest televised race about to unfold at 3:00pm AEST on the first Tuesday in November, spectators will be working out how to tip the winner of the Melbourne Cup 2021.
However does the favourite always win?
Statistics have shown out of 159 Melbourne Cups there has only ever been 34 wins come from the favourite with Fiorente being the last winner in 2013 priced at $7.00 to win. Phar Lap is currently sitting as the shortest priced favourite to win sitting at -137.49 in 1901.
So far the stats are far worse for the horses who are priced in the triple figures. With only four horses out 159 races have claimed victory when being priced at $100 or more to win. The last time being Prince Of Penzance which was $100 to win, ridden by the Michelle Payne who was also the first female jockey ever to win Melbourne Cup.
The Melbourne Cup favourites strike rate currently sits at 21.5% for favourite who have claimed victory in the prestigious Melbourne Cup and a tiny 2.6% of times that a horse paying $100 or above has won.
Looking at the previous Melbourne Cup stats horsebetting.com.au suggest deeper dive into who to back and looking at a few different tips that will give you a greater leg in the race that stops the nation rather than just blindly backing the favourite in the race.
Bet on the 2021 Melbourne cup
2021 Melbourne Cup Odds
Flemington – Race 7
Lexus Melbourne Cup
Status: Open
Track Rating: Good4
Weather: TBA
AUS
3200m
03:00pm – Tue 2nd Nov
2021 Melbourne Cup Field
| No. | Silks | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Barrier | Weight | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Twilight Payment | Joseph O’Brien | Jye McNeil | 2 | 58kg | $11 |
| 2 |  |
Incentivise | Peter Moody | Brett Prebble | 16 | 57kg | $2.50 |
| 3 |  |
Spanish Mission | Andrew Balding | Craig Williams | 14 | 57kg | $9 |
| 4 |  |
Verry Elleegant | Chris Waller | James McDonald | 19 | 57kg | $15 |
| 5 |  |
Explosive Jack | C Maher & D Eustace | John Allen | 4 | 54kg | $51 |
| 6 |  |
The Chosen One | M Baker & A Forsman | Damian Lane | 5 | 54kg | $61 |
| 7 |  |
Delphi | A & S Freedman | Damien Oliver | 3 | 53.5kg | $41 |
| 8 |  |
Ocean Billy | Chris Waller | Damian Thornton | 13 | 53.5kg | $101 |
| 9 |  |
Selino | Chris Waller | Ron Stewart | 24 | 53.5kg | $151 |
| 10 |  |
Johnny Get Angry | Denis Pagan | Lachlan King | 22 | 53kg | $101 |
| 11 |  |
Knights Order | G Waterhouse & A Bott | Daniel Stackhouse | 9 | 53kg | $201 |
| 12 |  |
Persan | C Maher & D Eustace | Luke Currie | 11 | 53kg | $31 |
| 13 |  |
Carif | P & P Snowden | Blaike McDougall | 8 | 52.5kg | $201 |
| 14 |  |
Master Of Wine | Team Hawkes | Fred Kersley | 6 | 52.5kg | $101 |
| 15 |  |
Pondus | Robert Hickmott | Rachel King | 1 | 52.5kg | $41 |
| 16 |  |
Grand Promenade | C Maher & D Eustace | Kerrin McEvoy | 21 | 52kg | $21 |
| 17 |  |
Miami Bound | Danny O’Brien | Patrick Moloney | 17 | 52kg | $151 |
| 18 |  |
Port Guillaume | Ben & JD Hayes | Harry Coffey | 23 | 52kg | $151 |
| 19 |  |
She’s Ideel | Bjorn Baker | Craig Newitt | 20 | 52kg | $101 |
| 20 |  |
Future Score | Matt Cumani | Dean Yendall | 15 | 51.5kg | $301 |
| 21 |  |
Tralee Rose | Symon Wilde | Dean Holland | 12 | 51kg | $17 |
| 22 |  |
Floating Artist | C Maher & D Eustace | Teo Nugent | 10 | 50kg | $18 |
| 23 |  |
Great House | Chris Waller | Michael Dee | 7 | 50kg | $31 |
| 24 |  |
Sir Lucan | G Waterhouse & A Bott | Glen Boss | 18 | 50kg | $26 |
