Expert form analyst The Watchdog is tipping David Geall to train the quinella in Sunday afternoon’s Group 2 SEN Track Healesville Cup final (350m).
Lara-based Geall has two leading contenders in G2 Ballarat and Shepparton Cup winner Ferdinand Boy, which is chasing a $50,000 bonus for winning three country cups in a calendar year, and fastest heat winner Hill Top Jonah.
The Watchdog is predicting a bittersweet result for Geall, tipping him to walk away with the Cup but not the rich bonus, agreeing with TAB’s market that has Hill Top Jonah (Box 1) at $3.20 and Ferdinand Boy (Box 5) $4.40.
Click HERE for TAB’s Healesville Cup market
“My pick in the race has to be Hill Top Jonah,” said The Watchdog.
“He’s six for six since going up the straight, four over this trip, two over the 300m and he’s lit up the clock each time.
“The key is his first sections; he’s gone 6.46sec, 6.45sec, 6.43sec and 6.45sec in his four runs over the trip.
“Hill Top Jonah should hold the lead, he’s going to go about 18.90sec, so they’re going to have to run the hands off the clock to reel him in.”
The Watchdog believes the box draw will prove decisive in Hill Top Jonah denying Ferdinand Boy a third country cup triumph.
“If you reverse the boxes with Ferdinand Boy and the kennelmate, I think he goes around favourite and probably gets the cash, but from Box 5 he’s going to have to step well,” The Watchdog said.
“He should be up outside his kennelmate, he’s going to work him into the ground and I think they will quinella the race. Dave Geall is going to have a big Sunday!”
“Hill Top Jonah should hold the lead, he’s going to go about 18.90sec, so they’re going to have to run the hands off the clock to reel him in.”
The Watchdog acknowledges Tiggerlong Tonk is a deserved favourite but is concerned Box 6 could prove problematic, while identifying the $15 on offer about the lightly-raced Aston Merit, which ran second in Hill Top Jonah’s heat at just his third start, as the “value in the race”.
“He was brilliant in the Highway 31 Maiden final and then last week he was far from disgraced behind Hill Top Jonah,” said The Watchdog.
“From Box 2, I think he’ll follow ‘Jonah’ through in the first 50m and really settle in a nice threatening position.”
The Watchdog’s suggested $20 spend
$10 Trifecta: 1,5/1,2,3,5,6/1,2,3,5,6,8 (32 combinations) 31.25%
$10 Win: Hill Top Jonah @ $3.20
WATCH: Hill Top Jonah (2) enhanced his perfect record at Healesville to six from six when setting the pace in the G2 Healesville Cup heats, running 19.13sec.
