The best young sprinters in Victoria will light up Warragul on Friday night in three sensational heats of the G3 St Leger, culminating in a mouth-watering match-up between last start G1 Maturity Classic heroine Qwara Bale and boom prospect Rebellious.
Qwara Bale (18 from 31 – 3 from 5 Box 7) is a two-time G1 winner, while Rebellious (10 from 12) has run near-records wherever he’s gone thus far, and Paua Of Buddy (5 from 7 – 4 from 4 Trk/Dst) could be the fly in the ointment.
Potential superstar Koblenz (16 from 23 – 11 of past 13) is the headline act in the opening heat, looking to bounce back after finishing 2nd at his last two.
Lara trainer David Geall has another excellent chance earlier on in Fernando Mick (9 from 32 – 3 of past 4), narrowly beaten when runner-up in the Maturity last weekend.
The remaining heat pits dual G1 finalist Shima Classic (10 from 26) against Maturity finalists Handsome Rhino (7 from 16) and Aston Fastnet (9 from 21 – 3 from 3 Box 3).
The spotlight is most definitely on Warragul, but earlier in the day Bendigo will provide a tasty appetiser, featuring super consistent G1 placegetter Papi Go Fast (24 from 44).
There’ll also be a three-way showdown between prolific Group finalists Lots Of Chatter (27 wins – 4 of past 5 – 6 from 13 Box 1), Blackpool Flash (25 from 48 – 6 from 11 Box 3) and Oriental Amber (21 from 44 – 4 from 10 Trk/Dst).
Meanwhile, the main attractions at Geelong include Tyler Durden (11 wins), a 4-time G1 finalist in 2021, and two-time country cups winner Yozo Bale (25 from 66).
Here’s an extensive analysis of today’s Must Watch Race, and be sure to scroll down further for 
The Watchdog’s $10 spend…
MUST-WATCH RACE: Warragul St. Leger Heat 3
REBELLIOUS 
PAUA OF BUDDY QWARA BALE
Warragul 
Race 8 
460m 
9:33pm
Form 
https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666541516/race/8
The Watchdog says 
: All three St. Leger heats are stacked full of talent; however, this heat sees the current sprint queen take on a couple of ‘heirs’ to the throne. REBELLIOUS (1) is one of the hottest prospects in the land and his win at Geelong last start was simply breathtaking. He scorched early and came home hard to clock a blinding 25.24sec, which is one of the fastest runs we have seen at the venue since the great Black Magic Opal established the 25.10sec record back in 2013. This is his first time exiting the red, however his box manners have proven to be faultless, and he has dazzling pace once he hits the ground. So, he should have no trouble holding the early lead and a sub 25.30sec run could be on the cards. QWARA BALE (7) is the current sprint queen of the track and although she is already a two time Group 1 winner, this could be her toughest test to date. She has handled this draw in the past, and she has begun well in her past two, however there is a ridiculous amount of pace drawn underneath, so she will need a few things to go her way as they approach the bend. PAUA OF BUDDY (3) is the interesting runner. He hasn’t had the same amount of hype as the ‘red’, however he has a similar engine and his past two wins have been off the charts. Two runs back he obliterated the clock at Ballarat with a scintillating 24.93sec win and he then followed that up with a scorching 25.63sec BON win at Warragul. The draw isn’t ideal but, in his four wins here, he has consistently gone around 6.47sec to the first marker and that would have him sitting outside the top elect. BLACK AVENGER (2) rounds out the serious chances. He can be a little hard to follow at times, but he has busted the magical 25 seconds barrier at Ballarat and could cause a minor upset.
Selections: 1 – 2 – 3 – 7
THE WATCHDOG’S $10 INVESTMENT 
Friday 30 July
$4 Place – BLAZING PENNY Bendigo Race 3 
Box 8 425m 3:27pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.85 Place
Form https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666541518/race/3
The Watchdog says : ‘Penny’ has continued to improve in recent weeks, and she appears drawn to get all the breaks. There is plenty of pace drawn directly on her inside, so they should give her a nice cart across initially and I would expect her to turn for home in the top two or three and figure in the finish.
$4 Multi
First 
: Win – PAPI GO FAST Bendigo Race 4 Box 5 500m 3:47pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.45 Win
Form https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666541518/race/4
Second : Win – KINSON BALE Bendigo Race 5 Box 1 425m 4:04pm
TAB fixed odds: $2.00 Win
Form https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666541518/race/5
Third : Win – YOHAN BALE Bendigo Race 10 Box 8 425m 5:45pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.60 Win
Form https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666541518/race/10
Fourth : Place – ALUMNI Bendigo Race 11 Box 7 425m 6:08pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.40 Place (top two finish required)
Form https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666541518/race/11
The Watchdog says : PAPI GO FAST (5) has a fair bit on his rivals and he should dictate terms from the outset. I’m expecting a big day for the Grenfell kennel and KINSON BALE (1) and YOHAN BALE (8) should use their devastating turn of speed to advantage from favourable draws and score. ALUMNI (7) should lead them up in race 11. The last 40m is a concern but he should have a big enough break to hold on to a top two finish.
Multi price: $6.50
$2 Trifecta – 1 / 2,7 / 2,3,6,7 (33.33%) Warragul Race 8 460m 9:33pm ***Must Watch Race***
Form https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666541516/race/8
The Watchdog says : REBELLIOUS (1) should pounce on the lead and, if so, he could be carving out time for fun. BLACK AVENGER (2) can run a big race and could add some value in the minor money, whilst we have included the other big guns for second and third.
RECENT $10 INVESTMENTS
Thursday 29 July: $15.11 (+51%)
Wednesday 28 July: $7.20 (-28%)
Tuesday 27 July: $6.35 (-37%)
Monday 26 July: $0 (-100%)
Sunday 25 July: $0 (-100%)
Saturday 24 July: $23.04 (+130%)
Friday 23 July: $0 (-100%)
Past 7 days: $51.70 for $70 invested (-26%)
Past 14 days: $121.41 for $140 Invested (-13%)
Past 28 days: $309.18 for $280 Invested (+10%)
MONTH x MONTH RECORD
June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)
NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.
*Please gamble responsibly
