Ajax Stakes tips, betting strategy & Odds | 13/1 Preview

The Ajax Stakes shapes as a cracking contest between two market fancies — Criaderas and Buffalo River — with the Group 2 at Rosehill set to jump at 5pm on Saturday. Criaderas, the son of Lonhro, has again copped a tricky barrier draw but, according to Sportsbet, should be able to challenge the on-pace Buffalo River late in proceedings.

Buffalo River will enjoy the inside gate and should be able to roll along on the speed in the 1500m feature, with Greyworm and I Am Superman not too far away in the run. Race favourite, Criaderas will be last from the inside alley, and be charging late with clear running and luck in the straight.

While Criaderas looks the best horse in the race, his map continues to bring him undone. The fast-finishing son of Lonhro regularly detaches from the field and lets down in a Chautauqua-like finish but ultimately fails. On Saturday, he has drawn the inside and is likely to be bottled up on the fence with nine backsides in front of him.

Rachel King knows the horse well, he gets in light and the 1500m is ideal for the James Cummings-trained gelding, but the inside alley makes him hard to back at what is rock bottom odds. If he drifts to $3.50+, we will have a bet, but not at the current price that is on offer ($2.80).

Second favourite according to the market is Mike Moroney’s Buffalo River, who will be partnered by James McDonald. The five-year-old gelding is a front runner which will be perfect here, given his main rival will be spotting him a likely monster task. Drawn barrier five, he will bounce straight on the bunny and be looking to burn the candle at both ends. Connections will be hoping the rain arrives, given he has never missed a place from eight wet track runs, including five wins. He had a bit of a gut buster in the Blamey last start over the mile, but we are just a bit cautious at backing him over a distance beyond 1400m.

Looks Like Elvis ends up being the bet in the race for us. The six-year-old brings in some terrific form last campaign, which included a third in the Group 2 Shannon Stakes and a fifth in the Epsom, only 1.6L off Probabeel, who has won another Group 1 since and is a $4 chance in the All-Star Mile on Saturday. He trialled nicely twice, and run really well first-up behind Think It Over a fortnight ago. Second-up is when he tends to fire, winning two of five first-up runs. He handles the wet track, and he maps to get a beautiful run in transit from barrier four under Jason Collett.

Ajax Stakes betting strategy