2022 Cox Plate preview & betting strategy | Saturday, October 22

Zaaki

T: Annabel Neasham

J: Jamie Kah

1. Zaaki (1)

7yoG | T: Annabel Neasham | J: Jamie Kah (59kg)

Zaaki is a three-time Group 1 winner, but safe to say the Annabel Neasham-trained superstar has been short of his best this campaign. Since winning the Group 2 Tramway Stakes at Randwick on September 3, the seven-year-old was a weakening third in the Underwood Stakes two starts back and then was swamped late by Anamoe and I’m Thunderstruck in the Might And Power last time out. He has shown a tendency to want to settle up on the pace, but at the same time has wanted to lay in throughout when under pressure. He draws barrier one for Saturday’s Group 1 and with the tendency to want to be up on pace and the want to lay in, the draw may just suit him perfectly. He was scratched from this race on raceday morning 12-months and will be out to stamp himself as one of the modern-day stars. However, could the rail be off come the Cox Plate? We have an eight-race program the night before for Manikato Stakes Night and with the Group 1 being the ninth race of the day on Saturday, the inside section might just be too choppy. He is a deserving favourite, but it is just too tricky a map for Zaaki and we expect to see his $4 quote drift approaching jump time.

I’m Thunderstruck

T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr

J: Mark Zahra

2. I’m Thunderstruck (10)

5yoG | T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr | J: Mark Zahra (59kg)

I’m Thunderstruck may have a similar record to Zaaki this campaign, but he has arguably been more impressive out of the two of them heading into the Cox Plate. The Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr-trained gelding was breathtaking in his Makybe Diva Stakes win three starts back, a touch disappointing in the Underwood and was only bloused by Anamoe late on in the Might And Power. With rain forecast on Saturday, he is going to handle the conditions as well as anyone and despite needing to go back to the rear of the field from barrier 10, he is going to have the race perfectly set up for him to build through his gears from the 600m mark and unleash down the centre of the track. Despite being a $13 chance with online betting sites, we believe I’m Thunderstruck is the biggest danger to Anamoe and having already won at The Valley in the past, there is no reason why he cannot shape up on Saturday.

Alligator Blood

T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

J: Tim Clark

3. Alligator Blood (12)

6yoG | T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | J: Tim Clark (59kg)

The way he won the Underwood Stakes suggested Alligator Blood would be right in Cox Plate calculations, but his flop in the Might And Power left many, including us, scratching heads. His racing style is hard to knock though considering he is generally the pace setter and from barrier 12 with Tim Clark on board we expect him to lead the field up. He is one of the runners who needs the track to stay on the firmer side of the things considering he has just one win from six runs on rain-affected ground. Despite being up on speed and the way he didn’t see out the 2000m last time out, we will be looking elsewhere and letting Alligator Blood go around.

Mr Brightside

T: Ben & JD Hayes

J: Craig Williams

4. Mr Brightside (11)

5yoG | T: Ben & JD Hayes | J: Craig Williams (59kg)

Mr Brightside simply got too far out of his ground in the Might And Power but made up substantial ground when beaten two-lengths in his fourth place effort. That was the first time he had been sent out over 2000m and looked like he was hitting the line nicely. His win here at The Valley three starts back in the Feehan Stakes solidified the fact he can handle the unique surroundings of The Valley and we expect he will run a massive race at a big price. The in-form Craig Williams continues his strong association with him and from barrier 11, we expect Willow to follow Alligator Blood across the front of the field and have Mr Brightside lobbed in the one-one throughout. He has six wins from nine starts on wet ground so we know he will handle the track conditions with great aplomb and as long as he can see out a strongly run 2040m, we expect Mr Brightside to be fighting out the finish with the likes of Anamoe and I’m Thunderstruck.

Mo’unga

T: Annabel Neasham

J: Nash Rawiller

5. Mo’unga (10)

5yoH | T: Annabel Neasham | J: Nash Rawiller (59kg)

Mo’unga is without a doubt a genuine star on his day, but we have not seen the very best of him for some time. The second of three Annabel Neasham-trained runners has mixed his form so far since arriving in Melbourne this campaign. He was the best of the beaten bunch behind I’m Thunderstruck and Alligator Blood, he was the eye-catching run in the Underwood Stakes at his next start when finishing second before producing the 3rd best last 200m of the day when finishing last in the Might And Power. He clearly wasn’t a threat in the Might And Power, but the way he closed from the rear of the field suggests if he settles closer to the speed on Saturday he could figure in the finish. However, the forecast rain and the unique track of Moonee Valley plays against him and despite being over the odds based on recent form, he is one who might struggle in the conditions on Saturday.

Gold Trip

T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

J: Jamie Spencer

6. Gold Trip (7)

5yoH | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: Jamie Spencer (59kg)

The Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained Gold Trip is set to back up in the Cox Plate having been lipped out in last week’s Caulfield Cup. He gave away 6kg to eventual winner Durston in what as a massive effort considering his weight. This is without a doubt a step up in class, but at weight-for-age he may just prove a tough one to get the better of. From barrier seven, Jamie Spencer will need to lob this guy midfield with cover, arguably ahead of Anamoe if he is to be a winning chance. He has not won in close to 2.5 years so his confidence must be down and despite being on the fourth line of betting, we can make more of a case for other runners at a slightly bigger price.

Laws Of Indices

T: Annabel Neasham

J: John Allen

7. Laws Of Indices (3)

4yoH | T: Annabel Neasham | J: John Allen (59kg)

The third of the Annabel Neasham-trained runners in the Cox Plate is last start Toorak Handicap place-getter Laws Of Indices. He was arguably the run of the race having unleashed down the centre of the track to go down by 0.75-lengths to Tuvalu. However, the result reads a lot better on paper than what it actually does, considering there were a few plodders going around in that Group 1. This is his first crack at 2040m and considering he has only won at 1400m and no further, we are looking elsewhere in the Cox Plate.

Young Werther

T: Danny O’Brien

J: Damian Lane

8. Young Werther (2)

5yoG | T: Danny O’Brien | J: Damian Lane (59kg)

The Danny O’Brien-trained Young Werther is another who has not tasted success since claiming his maiden success over two years ago, but ironically a case could be made for him in a race like this. He may not be a genuine winning chance, but more a trifecta/first four player based on his efforts in recent times at Group 1 level. He has placed in four of his five runs at the highest level and comes to this third-up from a spell. He was held for a run at a crucial point in the Turnbull Stakes last time out and deserved to finish closer than what his 1.6-length defeat suggested. Just four runs ago he was beaten a half-length by Incentivise and if Young Werther brings an effort like that to Cox Plate, he could prove to be a knockout hope.

Maximal

T: John O’Shea

J: Ben Melham

9. Maximal (5)

4yoH | T: John O’Shea | J: Ben Melham (59kg)

Maximal was scratched from the Caulfield Cup last weekend due to wet weather, only to find another wet track at Moonee Valley this weekend. He has won just once in his career when based over in the UK, with conditions against and a few more clearly a level above him, we are happy to let Maximal go around without us.

Anamoe

T: James Cummings

J: James McDonald

10. Anamoe (4)

4yoH | T: James Cummings | J: James McDonald (57.5kg)

He should have won the Cox Plate last year on the track and he certainly should have won the race in the steward’s room, neither prevailed and Anamoe is back for redemption in the 2022 Cox Plate. He won the Winx Stakes and George Main Stakes in Sydney to begin his campaign, then came down to Caulfield and got the better of a very similar field in the Might And Power. He crabbed around the corner last time out, but once he balanced up in the home straight, he knuckled down beautifully and managed to get the better of I’m Thunderstruck and Zaaki inside the final furlong. He draws perfectly in barrier four with James McDonald on board and we expect to see the pair settled three pairs back in the moving line. Anamoe is arguably the best horse in the country and will get his crowning moment on Saturday when he takes out the Cox Plate.

Profondo

T: Richard Litt

J: Chad Schofield

11. Profondo (6)

4yoH | T: Richard Litt | J: Chad Schofield (57.5kg)
The Richard Litt-trained Profondo has been well beaten in all of his last three starts and deserves to be the rank outsider of the field. He is a shadow of his former self from his three-year-old season and is another who does not handle wet ground. We would be impressed if he beats a runner home.

El Bodegon

T: Chris Waller

J: Damien Oliver

12. El Bodegon (8)

3yoC | T: Chris Waller | J: Damien Oliver (56.5kg)

The one who brings the ‘X-Factor’ to the Cox Plate is arguably the Chris Waller-trained El Bodegon. The three-year-old colt from Ireland will no doubt appreciate the conditions he faces on Saturday and with Damien Oliver on board will look to roll forward and take up a prominent position throughout the race. He was last seen finishing four-lengths behind Melbourne Cup favourite Deauville Legend at York over 2385m on August 17. He is without a doubt up to Group 1 standard, but considering this is first go in Australia off an eight-week freshen up and travel we are happy to risk El Bodegon in the Cox Plate.