2021 Vinery Stud Stakes betting preview & tips | Saturday, 03/04

The Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes, is the key lead up into the ATC Oaks, will be run and won on Saturday. A field of 10 quality three-year-old fillies has been assembled, including the VRC Oaks winner Personal, Kembla Grange Classic winner Miravalle, as well as Hungry Heart and a New Zealand filly, Force Of Will, who is looking for five straight wins. Harmony Rose will run the favourite after a solid third in the Randwick Guineas last start. There isn’t much speed engaged here, with the race favourite looking like the leader from the inside alley, while Love Sensation and Elizabeel are also likely to be handy.

The Vinery Stud Stakes has fallen away a touch without Montefilia and Amarelinha, who share favouritism in the Oaks at this early stage. Those two fillies exclusion leaves us with a clear standout here in Harmony Rose. The filly by Glass Harmonium has won three of her five career starts and placed on two other occasions, with one of those being her most recent third-placing in the Group 1 Randwick Guineas. She was left in front a long way from home on that occasion and toughed it out to be beaten a length and a half by Lion’s Roar and subsequent Rosehill Guineas winner Mo’unga. She was the sole filly in that race and beat home a quality bunch of colts, so that form has to be respected here back against her own sex. Drawn the inside alley for Joshua Parr, she will roll forward and be in the first one or two given the lack of speed in the race. This journey might be the upper-end of her ability, but she has taken everything before her and eaten it alive so there is no reason why this grey filly can’t be winning for her connections on Saturday.

The Kembla Grange classic form often stacks up in these better races and Miravalle won like a good horse in that race. Mark Newnham also trains this filly, so he has a strong hand in Saturday’s Group 1 if you ask us! The daughter of Redoute’s Choice has always shown staying potential; she ran fourth in the Wakeful over this distance at Flemington in the Spring and then backed it up five days later in the Oaks with another fourth. While she did get beaten comfortably by Personal who she meets again here, we are of the belief that she is going better this time in, whereas Personal is not. Once she found clear air in the KG Classic she put paid to her rivals like a good horse would, so this rise to 2000m will be just what the doctor ordered. Hugh Bowman aboard is a good booking for a filly who does need a strong rider to get going, we just hope she isn’t too far off her stablemate given the lack of pace.

The bottom weight, Princess Rhaenys is an intriguing galloper. While she hasn’t got the runs on the board like her rivals do, she was ultra-impressive beating VRC Oaks runner-up Salto Angel by nearly two lengths last time out at Ballarat. That was a fillies maiden over 1600m where she ran nearly a second and a half quicker than the Benchmark 64 field on the same day, so she did it with authority. Drawn gate two under Luke Nolen, the Moody-trained filly will be able to settle a touch closer than last time which will give her every chance in this. We think she will be better over further, so the Oaks might be more her go, but if it is a sit-sprint like we are expecting, she could just be too sharp.

Vinery Stud Stakes odds comparison

Vinery Stud Stakes betting strategy